Categorical Graphic
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.

   SPC AC 180556
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1156 PM CST TUE JAN 17 2012
   
   VALID 181200Z - 191200Z
   
   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A LONGWAVE TROUGH/FAST CYCLONIC UPPER FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
   PERIOD ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF NORTH AMERICA. A LEAD
   SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL QUICKLY EXIT THE NORTHEAST CONUS AND CROSS THE
   CANADIAN MARITIMES...WHILE A SECONDARY CLIPPER-TYPE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
   AMPLIFIES OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST/UPPER GREAT LAKES. AT THE
   SURFACE...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC/CAROLINAS
   COAST EARLY TODAY...WITH THIS FRONT OTHERWISE SPREADING
   SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS FAR SOUTH GA AND FL.
   
   ...FL...
   A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL ACCOMPANY THE COLD FRONT AS IT
   ADVANCES/EVENTUALLY DECELERATES ACROSS FAR SOUTH GA AND NORTH FL
   TODAY. VERTICAL SHEAR AND MEAN WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW /50+ KT
   700-500 MB/ WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY STRONG COINCIDENT WITH THIS
   CONVECTION/THE COLD FRONT...AND STRONG/GUSTY WINDS MAY BE POSSIBLE
   ESPECIALLY EARLY TODAY. HOWEVER...EVEN WITH A MODEST/NARROW INFLUX
   OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE OCCURRING AHEAD OF THE FRONT...LAPSE
   RATES/WARM SECTOR DESTABILIZATION SHOULD REMAIN WEAK /LARGELY
   ATTRIBUTABLE TO CLOUD COVER/. THESE THERMODYNAMIC FACTORS...ALONG
   WITH WEAKENING NEAR-FRONTAL CONVERGENCE THIS AFTERNOON...IMPLY THAT
   ANY SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL BE VERY LOW.
   
   ...UPPER GREAT LAKES...
   VERY COLD AIR WILL ACCOMPANY A FAST-MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH/COLD
   FRONT CROSSING THE REGION LATE IN THE PERIOD. AN INCREASE OF LAKE
   EFFECT SHALLOW CONVECTION MAY OCCUR LATE TONIGHT/EARLY
   THURSDAY...BUT ANY TSTM POTENTIAL IN VICINITY OF THE UPPER LAKES
   SHOULD REMAIN VERY LIMITED AND LOCALIZED /SUB-10 PERCENT/.
   
   ..GUYER/COHEN.. 01/18/2012
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z