Categorical Graphic
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.

   SPC AC 261332
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0732 AM CST THU JAN 26 2012
   
   VALID 261300Z - 271200Z
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE CNTRL GULF CST STATES
   NEWD INTO THE CAROLINAS/SRN VA...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   NE TX UPR LOW HAS BEGUN TO EJECT NEWD AS IT BECOMES RE-ABSORBED
   WITHIN THE MAIN BELT OF THE WLYS AND PHASES WITH IMPULSE MOVING SE
   ACROSS THE LWR MO VLY.  THE PHASED TROUGH SHOULD REACH THE SRN
   APPALACHIANS BY 12Z THU...WITH A BROAD SWATH OF 90 TO 120 M HEIGHT
   FALLS BY THAT TIME EXPECTED TO EXTEND DOWNSTREAM INTO THE CAROLINAS
   AND MID ATLANTIC.
   
   AT LWR LEVELS...ELONGATED SFC LOW NOW OVER THE LWR MS VLY SHOULD
   BECOME BETTER DEFINED TODAY...AND LIKELY WILL BE CENTERED NEAR
   NASHVILLE THIS EVE.  THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO MARKEDLY DEEPEN AS IT
   ACCELERATES NEWD TNGT/EARLY FRI...REACHING WRN NY BY THE END OF THE
   PERIOD.
   
   COLD FRONT EXTENDING SSW FROM DEVELOPING SFC LOW...AND PRE-FRONTAL
   OUTFLOW BOUNDARY/SQLN...EXPECTED TO BE THE MAIN FOCI FOR STRONG TO
   SVR TSTMS TODAY AS THOSE FEATURES CONTINUE MOVING GENERALLY ENE
   ACROSS THE CNTRL GULF CST REGION.  LATER TNGT AND EARLY
   FRI...REMNANTS OF THE FRONTAL ACTIVITY...OR NEW STORMS...ARE
   EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE ERN SLOPES OF THE SRN APPALACHIANS AND THE
   ADJACENT PIEDMONT/CSTL PLNS.  THIS ACTIVITY MAY POSE A RENEWED SVR
   THREAT...ESPECIALLY AFTER 06Z.
   
   ...CNTRL GULF CST STATES TODAY THROUGH EARLY TNGT...
   EWD PROGRESSION OF UPR LOW WILL MAINTAIN BROAD INFLOW OF
   MOISTURE-RICH AIR /PW AOA 1.5 INCHES/ AHEAD OF COLD FRONT CROSSING
   THE GULF CST STATES.  COUPLED WITH SFC HEATING AND LARGE SCALE
   ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH EJECTING UPR TROUGH...SETUP SHOULD SUPPORT
   STRENGTHENING OF EXISTING PRE-FRONTAL SQLN...ESPECIALLY AS COLD
   FRONT OVERTAKES IT LATER THIS MORNING.  IN ADDITION...PERSISTENT
   CONFLUENCE IN MOIST INFLOW ENVIRONMENT COULD YIELD A FEW DISCRETE
   STORMS AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BAND.
   
   WHILE MID LVL LAPSE RATES WILL NOT BE STEEP...PRESENCE OF RICH
   BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WITH MODERATE TO STRONG...LARGELY
   UNIDIRECTIONAL SSWLY FLOW SUGGEST LIKELIHOOD FOR BROKEN LINE
   SEGMENTS CONTAINING SUSTAINED STORMS/LEWPS AND OCCASIONAL
   SUPERCELLS.  THESE WILL BE CAPABLE OF DMGG WIND AND POSSIBLY
   TORNADOES...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE CST WHERE SFC DEW POINTS WILL RISE
   INTO UPR 60S TO NEAR 70 F.
   
   THE STORMS SHOULD REACH WRN GA LATER TODAY AND PERSIST THROUGH THIS
   EVE.  NIGHTFALL AND INFLUENCE OF RESIDUAL WEDGE-TYPE AIR MASS MAY
   RESULT IN SOME WEAKENING OF STORM INTENSITY/COVERAGE.
   NEVERTHELESS...SOME SVR THREAT LIKELY WILL CONTINUE ACROSS GA AND
   ADJACENT PARTS OF THE SRN APPALACHIANS THROUGH LATE TNGT GIVEN
   STRENGTH OF FLOW/MOISTURE INFLOW ABOVE SHALLOW STABLE LAYER.
   
   ...ERN AR THROUGH CNTRL/NRN MS AND WRN AL THIS AFTN...
   WDLY SCTD STRONG TO SVR STORMS MAY FORM THIS AFTN OVER CNTRL/NRN MS
   AREA...NEAR TRACK OF SFC LOW AND ASSOCIATED W-E COLD FRONTAL SURGE. 
   WHILE LOW LVL WINDS WILL BE MODEST AND VEERED TO WSWLY...STRONG SSW
   FLOW ALOFT AND MID LVL COOLING/DPVA SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR A FEW
   SUSTAINED UPDRAFTS/POSSIBLE SUPERCELLS WITH HAIL.
   
   ...CAROLINAS/SRN VA EARLY FRI...
   MODERATE TO STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH PHASING UPR
   TROUGH WILL OVERSPREAD ZONE OF RAPID LOW LVL MOISTENING ALONG THE
   ERN SLOPES OF THE SRN APPALACHIANS EARLY FRI.  AT THE SAME
   TIME...LOW TO MID LVL FLOW WILL SUBSTANTIALLY INCREASE...WITH 850 MB
   SSWLY WINDS INCREASING TO AOA 60 KTS.  THIS SETUP MAY SUPPORT
   REJUVENATION OF EXISTING BANDS OF STORMS CROSSING THE SRN
   APPALACHIANS FROM THE TN VLY...AND/OR NEW DEVELOPMENT ALONG LEE
   TROUGH JUST E OF THE MOUNTAINS.  VERY STRONG LOW LVL FLOW/SHEAR
   SUGGEST A CONDITIONAL THREAT FOR BOTH DMGG WIND AND TORNADOES WITH
   ANY SUSTAINED STORMS THAT DO FORM.
   
   ..CORFIDI/JIRAK.. 01/26/2012
   
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