Categorical Graphic
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.

   SPC AC 261959
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0159 PM CST THU JAN 26 2012
   
   VALID 262000Z - 271200Z
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER A PORTION OF THE SERN
   STATES INCLUDING THE CAROLINAS...
   
   ...SERN STATES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...
   
   PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT WILL PERSIST WITH PRE-FRONTAL BAND OF STORMS
   DEVELOPING ALONG WARM CONVEYOR BELT AND 50+ KT LLJ AXIS EXTENDING
   FROM ERN AL INTO THE WRN FL PANHANDLE. BOUNDARY LAYER HAS WARMED
   INTO THE 70S DOWNSTREAM FROM GA INTO NRN FL...BUT CAPE REMAINS
   MARGINAL OWING TO WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MODEST LOW LEVEL
   MOISTURE WITH DEWPOINTS NEAR 60F. STORMS WILL CONTINUE DEVELOPING
   EWD INTO THE EVENING WITH OCCASIONAL EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS AND
   COMMA/LEWP STRUCTURES WITH A THREAT OF ISOLATED TORNADOES AND
   DAMAGING WIND.
   
   ...NRN MS THROUGH SWRN TN AND NRN AL...
   
   LOW CLOUDS HAVE BEGUN TO MIX OUT FROM THE SOUTH PRIMARILY IN ZONE
   ACROSS NRN MS WHERE WINDS HAVE VEER TO SWLY IN WAKE OF PRE-FRONTAL
   TROUGH. THIS HAS CONTRIBUTED TO VERY WEAK INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPE
   AOB 500 J/KG IN SMALL WARM SECTOR. VISIBLE AND RADAR IMAGERY SHOW A
   BAND OF SHALLOW CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE
   COLD FRONT WITHIN ZONE OF CONVERGENCE AND DPVA ACROSS NRN MS.
   HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL WINDS HAVE VEERED AND WEAKENED WHERE THE
   BOUNDARY LAYER IS UNDERGOING DESTABILIZATION WHICH IS RESULTING IN
   SMALL LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS. THIS ALONG WITH WEAK INSTABILITY IS
   LIMITING OVERALL SEVERE POTENTIAL. NEVERTHELESS WILL MAINTAIN LOW
   PROBABILITIES FOR ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS AND PERHAPS A BRIEF
   TORNADO WITH CONVECTION DEVELOPING IN THIS AREA.
   
   ...CAROLINAS...
   
   NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST.
   
   ..DIAL.. 01/26/2012
   
   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1030 AM CST THU JAN 26 2012/
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   
   MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE ARKLATEX/SABINE RIVER VALLEY WILL
   DEVELOP INTO AN OPEN WAVE AND ACCELERATE EWD ACROSS THE GULF COAST
   STATES AS IT PHASES WITH NRN BRANCH TROUGH PROGRESSING THROUGH THE
   OH VALLEY.  THIS LARGE-SCALE PATTERN EVOLUTION WILL RESULT IN A
   CORRIDOR OF SUBSTANTIAL FORCING FOR ASCENT /I.E. 12-HR HEIGHT FALLS
   AT 500 MB IN EXCESS OF 100 M/ SPREADING FROM THE MS VALLEY EWD
   ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS THROUGH 27/12Z.  IN THE LOW LEVELS...SURFACE
   CYCLONE OVER THE MS DELTA REGION WILL DEVELOP NEWD THROUGH MIDDLE TN
   THIS AFTERNOON...THE UPPER OH VALLEY OVERNIGHT...AND EVENTUALLY
   REACHING CNTRL NY BY FRI MORNING.  MEANWHILE...A TRAILING COLD FRONT
   WILL ADVANCE EWD FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY ACROSS THE TN VALLEY AND
   GULF COAST STATES BEFORE CROSSING THE APPALACHIANS LATE IN THE
   PERIOD.
   
   ...GULF COAST STATES INTO TN VALLEY...
   
   LOW-LEVEL MASS RESPONSE --MANIFEST IN THE INTENSIFICATION OF A SLY
   LLJ-- TO THE PHASING MIDLEVEL SYSTEMS WILL HASTEN THE NWD FLUX OF AN
   INCREASINGLY MOIST BOUNDARY ACROSS THE REGION IN ADVANCE OF COLD
   FRONT AND PRE-FRONTAL QLCS.  MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL REMAIN
   WEAK...BUT THIS MOISTURE COUPLED WITH POCKETS OF STRONGER DAYTIME
   HEATING --PARTICULARLY ACROSS NRN FL INTO GA-- WILL BOOST MLCAPE TO
   AROUND 1000 J/KG INVOF OF THE GULF COAST...DECREASING TO 250-500
   J/KG FARTHER N FROM THE I-20 CORRIDOR TOWARD THE TN VALLEY.  AS
   SUCH...EXPECT THE NWD EXPANSION/DEVELOPMENT OF QLCS ACROSS PORTIONS
   OF CNTRL/ERN AL AND THE WRN FL PNHDL TODAY WITH SYSTEM MOVING INTO
   GA LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING.  GIVEN THE STRONG LOW- AND
   DEEP-LAYER SHEAR...SETUP WILL REMAIN SUPPORTIVE OF EMBEDDED
   SUPERCELL AND/OR LEWP STRUCTURES CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND A FEW
   TORNADOES.
   
   FARTHER TO THE N/NW OVER NRN MS/NWRN AL...LARGE-SCALE PATTERN WILL
   BE SUPPORTIVE OF SEVERE STORMS IN ADVANCE OF MIGRATORY SURFACE LOW. 
   HOWEVER...ANTECEDENT WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION HAVE THUS
   FAR HAMPERED THE DESTABILIZATION PROCESS.  SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
   HAVE RECENTLY BEEN NOTED AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT ACROSS CNTRL MS
   WITH LATEST CONVECTION-ALLOWING MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATING THE
   POTENTIAL FOR A BAND OF TSTMS DEVELOPING OVER ERN MS THIS AFTERNOON.
   IT APPEARS THAT THE GREATER TORNADO THREAT WILL HAVE SHIFTED TO THE
   E OF THE AREA BY LATER TODAY...HOWEVER ANY STORMS THAT CAN DEVELOP
   AND BECOME SUSTAINED ALONG THE COLD FRONT WILL BE CAPABLE OF LOCALLY
   DAMAGING WINDS AND SOME HAIL.
   
   ...SRN/CNTRL APPALACHIANS INTO THE PIEDMONT AND COASTAL PLAIN
   TONIGHT...
   
   THE SSWLY LLJ WILL BROADEN AND STRENGTHEN OVERNIGHT IN ADVANCE OF
   PHASED MIDLEVEL TROUGH...ALLOWING FOR THE RAPID NWD RETURN OF A
   MOIST AIR MASS E OF THE APPALACHIANS.  WEAK LAPSE RATES OWING TO THE
   TIME OF DAY WILL LIMIT AIR MASS DESTABILIZATION.  BUT GIVEN THE
   STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR AND FORCING FOR ASCENT...THE THREAT FOR
   ISOLATED TORNADOES AND DAMAGING WINDS IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE INTO
   FRIDAY MORNING.
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z