Categorical Graphic
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.

   SPC AC 270051
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0651 PM CST THU JAN 26 2012
   
   VALID 270100Z - 271200Z
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE SERN
   U.S....
   
   ...SERN U.S...
   
   PRE-FRONTAL SQUALL LINE CONTINUES ITS EWD PROGRESSION ACROSS GA/FL
   PANHANDLE AT ROUGHLY 25KT.  GIVEN THIS SPEED/MOVEMENT IT SHOULD
   APPROACH THE GA/FL ATLANTIC COAST AROUND 06Z.
   
   00Z SOUNDINGS FROM TLH AND JAX ARE NOT PARTICULARLY UNSTABLE WITH
   JAX EXHIBITING A STABLE MID LEVEL LAYER AROUND 700MB.  EVEN SO
   STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR/ASCENT WILL LIKELY COMPENSATE FOR MARGINAL
   INSTABILITY AND THE ONGOING LINEAR MCS WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN SOME
   ORGANIZATIONAL STRUCTURE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.  WITH TIME
   STRENGTHENING LLJ OVER THE CAROLINAS WILL GREATLY ENHANCE SHEAR IN
   THE LEE OF THE SRN APPALACHIANS.  DESPITE THE EXPECTED WEAK BUOYANCY
   ACROSS THIS REGION SUFFICIENTLY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER CONDITIONS
   WARRANT AT LEAST LOW PROBS FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF
   PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS EVEN AN ISOLATED TORNADO INTO
   THE PRE-DAWN HOURS OVER PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS.
   
   IN THE WAKE OF THE SQUALL LINE A POCKET OF RELATIVELY STEEP LOW-MID
   LEVEL LAPSE RATES HAS OVERSPREAD NRN AL.  00Z SOUNDING FROM BMX
   SAMPLES THIS ENVIRONMENT WELL WITH SFC-3KM VALUES ON THE ORDER OF
   6.5 C/KM AND SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR RENEWED CONVECTION ALONG
   PRIMARY COLD FRONT.  LATEST RADAR DATA SUPPORTS THIS TREND WITH
   SHOWERS INCREASING ACROSS NWRN/CNTRL AL.  SOME OF THESE UPDRAFTS
   WILL LIKELY DEVELOP LIGHTNING IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND GIVEN THE
   SHEAR IN PLACE WILL MAINTAIN LOW PROBS FOR PRIMARILY DAMAGING WINDS.
   
   ..DARROW.. 01/27/2012
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z