Categorical Graphic
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.

   SPC AC 170055
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0655 PM CST THU FEB 16 2012
   
   VALID 170100Z - 171200Z
   
   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   IN MID-UPPER LEVELS...SPLIT-FLOW PATTERN REMAINS OVER ERN
   CONUS...RELATED TO CYCLONE NOW PIVOTING SEWD ACROSS NRN GULF OF CA. 
   THIS CYCLONE IS FCST TO CONTINUE ITS SLOW CURVING PATH EWD ACROSS
   SONORA OVERNIGHT.  LOW-AMPLITUDE/SRN-STREAM PERTURBATIONS...POORLY
   RESOLVED BY MODELS AND ONLY FAINTLY EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL
   IMAGERY...WILL MOVE CYCLONICALLY AROUND THIS FEATURE AND ACROSS RIO
   GRANDE VALLEY.
   
   AT SFC...23Z ANALYSIS SHOWED WEAK LOW DEVELOPING OVER COASTAL
   NC...WHICH IS FCST TO DEEPEN AS IT MOVES OFFSHORE HSE LATER THIS
   EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.  THIS LOW IS DEVELOPING ALONG WARM FRONT THAT
   EXTENDS SWD THEN WWD OVER SRN NC AND NERN GA TO COLD FRONTAL
   INTERSECTION E OF ATL.  COLD FRONT EXTENDED SWWD THROUGH WEAK WAVE
   LOW OVER PNS AREA...THEN ACROSS N-CENTRAL/W-CENTRAL GULF. 
   FRONTOLYSIS APPEARS UNDERWAY OVER WRN GULF...WITH SFC BOUNDARY
   REDEVELOPING NWD INVOF LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND ADJACENT PORTIONS
   NERN MEX.  SHALLOW/LOW-LEVEL FRONTAL ZONE THEN EXTENDS NWWD ACROSS
   MOUNTAINS OF COAHUILA TOWARD CENTRAL/NRN CHIHUAHUA S OF BIG BEND. 
   PRECISE LOCATION OF BOUNDARY IS UNCERTAIN GIVEN RUGGED
   TERRAIN...OBSERVATIONAL DATA VOID...AND THICK CLOUD COVER ON VIS
   IMAGERY TO HIDE LOW-LEVEL FEATURES.  FRONT SHOULD REMAIN S OF RIO
   GRANDE OVERNIGHT...POSSIBLE EXCEPTION BEING NWD INTRUSION INTO SW TX
   AROUND 850-MB LEVEL.
   
   ...DEEP S TX...
   MODIFIED 00Z RAOBS FROM BRO/CRP/DRT INDICATE CONVECTION NEARBY IN
   MEX MAY BE SFC-BASED...BUT WILL LOSE EFFECTIVE SFC-BASED INFLOW NEAR
   OR BEFORE CROSSING RIO GRANDE.  GIVEN SHALLOW NATURE OF
   FRONT...ISOLATED GUSTS APCHG SVR LIMITS CANNOT BE RULED
   OUT...HOWEVER THIS POTENTIAL SHOULD DIMINISH RAPIDLY AFTER DARK AS
   BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS DIABATICALLY.  ALTHOUGH LAPSE RATES ALOFT ARE
   NOT AS STEEP AS CHARACTERISTIC ELEVATED MIXED-LAYER
   PROFILES...MOIST/WARM ADVECTION AND RELATED THETAE INCREASE ABOVE
   BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BOOST ELEVATED MUCAPE TO AROUND 1000 J/KG.  STG
   MID-UPPER LEVEL FLOW ACCOMPANYING SUBTROPICAL BRANCH OF MID-UPPER
   JET WILL SUPPORT 45-55 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR MAGNITUDES. 
   THEREFORE...WILL MAINTAIN MRGL HAIL RISK AS WELL.
   
   ..EDWARDS.. 02/17/2012
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z