Categorical Graphic
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.

   SPC AC 200052
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0652 PM CST SUN FEB 19 2012
   
   VALID 200100Z - 201200Z
   
   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
   
   ...NC OUTER BANKS...
   REGIONAL RADAR/SATELLITE IMAGERY AND LIGHTNING DATA SHOWED A NARROW
   BAND OF LOW-TOPPED TSTMS MOVING E THROUGH FAR NERN NC...APPROACHING
   THE OUTER BANKS BY 01Z.  FORCING FOR ASCENT ATTENDANT A COMPACT
   SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRACKING ENEWD THROUGH NERN NC/SERN VA THIS EVENING
   SHOULD MAINTAIN THIS ACTIVITY AS IT PROGRESSES TO THE OUTER BANKS AT
   ISSUANCE TIME OF THIS OUTLOOK.  SOME LIGHTNING WILL BE POSSIBLE
   THROUGH ABOUT 0130Z OVER LAND PER ELEVATED CAPE OBSERVED ON THE 00Z
   MOREHEAD CITY...WITH ACTIVITY THEN SHIFTING OFFSHORE.  GIVEN THE
   PROXIMITY OF THIS SOUNDING TO THE ONGOING CONVECTION AND OBSERVATION
   OF A RATHER STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER...THREAT FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS
   WOULD NOT BE EXPECTED...AND THUS WILL NOT INTRODUCE ANY SEVERE
   WEATHER THREAT.
   
   ...CENTRAL PLAINS...
   A SHORTWAVE TROUGH...CURRENTLY MOVING ESEWD THROUGH THE GREAT
   BASIN... WILL AMPLIFY TONIGHT AS IT MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL/SRN
   ROCKIES BY 12Z MONDAY.  A SLY LLJ EXTENDING ACROSS THE SRN/CENTRAL
   PLAINS IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN TO 40-50 KT...ESPECIALLY FROM WRN
   OK THROUGH CENTRAL KS/NEB...IN RESPONSE TO HEIGHT FALLS /60 M PER 12
   HR AT 500 MB/ AHEAD OF THE AMPLIFYING TROUGH.  DESPITE LIMITED LOW
   LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE PLAINS...FORCING FOR ASCENT ATTENDANT TO A
   LEAD IMPULSE...NOW LOCATED OVER SERN UT PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...
   AND INCREASING WAA ALONG THE LLJ SUGGEST ELEVATED CONVECTION WILL BE
   POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT OVER PARTS OF KS/NEB.  WEAK INSTABILITY
   ROOTED AROUND 700 MB MAY SUPPORT A LIGHTNING STRIKE OR TWO...BUT
   OVERALL COVERAGE DOES NOT APPEAR SUFFICIENT TO WARRANT THE
   INTRODUCTION OF A GENERAL TSTM AREA.
   
   ..PETERS.. 02/20/2012
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z