Feb 25, 2012 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Sat Feb 25 00:57:07 UTC 2012
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Public Severe Weather Outlook

The SPC is forecasting ...severe thunderstorms expected over parts of the carolinas and virginia today through early tonight....   Please read the latest public statement about this event.

Categorical Graphic
20120225 0100 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20120225 0100 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20120225 0100 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20120225 0100 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
   SPC AC 250053
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0653 PM CST FRI FEB 24 2012
   
   VALID 250100Z - 251200Z
   
   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
   
   ...NC OUTER BANKS...
   WEAKENING SHOWERS WITH A FEW EMBEDDED TSTMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO
   RAPIDLY PROGRESS EWD ALONG THE ERN NC COAST DURING THE NEXT HOUR. 50
   KT SWLYS AT 2000 FT AGL DEPICTED IN THE 00Z MHX RAOB SUPPORTS
   POTENTIAL FOR A STRONG WIND GUST OR TWO BEFORE ACTIVITY PUSHES
   OFFSHORE.
   
   ELSEWHERE...SPORADIC ELEVATED TSTMS SHOULD PERSIST ALONG PORTIONS OF
   THE WRN GULF COAST WITHIN A MID-LEVEL MOISTURE PLUME DOWNSTREAM OF A
   SHORT WAVE IMPULSE OVER CHIHUAHUA. FINALLY...A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES
   MAY DEVELOP ALONG PORTIONS OF THE WA/ORE COAST TONIGHT AS AN
   UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH SHIFTS INLAND AND MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPEN.
   
   ..GRAMS.. 02/25/2012
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z