Categorical Graphic
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.

   SPC AC 251604
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1004 AM CST SAT FEB 25 2012
   
   VALID 251630Z - 261200Z
   
   ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS/FORECAST...
   
   A PROGRESSIVE LARGE-SCALE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE...FEATURING THE EWD
   TRANSLATION OF A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH OFF THE E COAST...DOWNSTREAM FROM
   AN AMPLIFYING IMPULSE ADVANCING FROM THE NRN ROCKIES INTO NRN
   PLAINS.  ELSEWHERE...A SUBTROPICAL-BRANCH PERTURBATION OVER S TX
   WILL WEAKEN WHILE LIFTING NEWD ALONG THE CNTRL GULF COAST.  IN THE
   LOW LEVELS...AN EXPANSIVE SURFACE ANTICYCLONE WILL BUILD FROM THE
   SRN PLAINS TO CNTRL APPALACHIANS BY 26/12Z...EFFECTIVELY DRIVING A
   COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FL PENINSULA.  MEANWHILE...A
   SURFACE LOW AND ATTENDANT PACIFIC FRONT OVER THE NRN ROCKIES INTO
   GREAT BASIN WILL PROGRESS EWD INTO THE NRN/CNTRL PLAINS TONIGHT INTO
   SUN MORNING.
   
   ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES WILL POSSIBLE TODAY FROM PORTIONS OF THE
   WA/ORE COASTS INTO ID ON CYCLONIC SIDE OF 90-100 KT MIDLEVEL JET
   STREAK WHERE DEEP ASCENT AND COLD THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES WILL
   SUPPORT SHALLOW CONVECTION.  OVER S FL...AN ISOLATED LIGHTNING
   STRIKE CANNOT BE RULED OUT...HOWEVER THE PRESENCE OF WARM MIDLEVEL
   TEMPERATURES WILL PROHIBIT THE DEVELOPMENT OF DEEPER CONVECTIVE
   UPDRAFTS.  ELSEWHERE...A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES WILL BE POSSIBLE
   ALONG THE S TX COAST AND IMMEDIATE COASTAL WATERS LATE THIS
   MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON...AND THEN ALONG THE CNTRL GULF COAST LATE
   TONIGHT INTO SUN MORNING IN ADVANCE OF WEAKENING SUBTROPICAL
   IMPULSE.  IN ALL CASES MENTIONED ABOVE...LIGHTNING POTENTIAL APPEARS
   TOO LIMITED TO WARRANT INCLUSION OF A GENERAL TSTM AREA.
   
   ..MEAD.. 02/25/2012
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z