Categorical Graphic
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.

   SPC AC 011630
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1030 AM CST THU MAR 01 2012
   
   VALID 011630Z - 021200Z
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE
   OZARK PLATEAU INTO MID SOUTH...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   
   SWD PROPAGATION OF MID- AND UPPER-LEVEL JET STREAKS FROM THE PACIFIC
   NW INTO SRN ROCKIES WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE INTENSIFICATION OF WRN
   CONUS TROUGH PROGRESSING EWD INTO THE GREAT PLAINS.  IN THE LOW
   LEVELS...LEE CYCLONE OVER CNTRL KS WILL DEVELOP ENEWD INTO THE LOWER
   MO VALLEY WITH SECONDARY CYCLOGENESIS FORECAST TONIGHT INTO FRI
   MORNING FROM OK INTO SWRN MO.  THESE FEATURES WILL HASTEN THE NWD
   RETREAT OF A SURFACE BOUNDARY --WHICH HAS BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY
   ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES-- INTO THE OZARK PLATEAU AND TN VALLEY.
    AT THE SAME TIME...A DRYLINE/PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH FROM S-CNTRL
   OK/N-CNTRL TX INTO THE EDWARDS PLATEAU WILL BE GRADUALLY OVERTAKEN
   BY A COLD FRONT.  
   
   ...OZARK PLATEAU INTO LOWER OH VALLEY...
   
   THE LOW-LEVEL MASS RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING MIDLEVEL TROUGH WILL
   INDUCE A LLJ ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT WHICH WILL ENHANCE THE NWD
   FLUX OF A WARMER AND MORE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER FROM THE GULF COAST. 
   THIS PROCESS WILL OCCUR BENEATH AN EWD-ADVECTING EML WHICH WILL
   RESULT IN CONSIDERABLE AIR MASS DESTABILIZATION OVERNIGHT WITH
   MUCAPE INCREASING TO 1500-2000 J/KG.  INCREASING WAA/ISENTROPIC
   ASCENT AT THE TERMINUS OF THE LLJ WILL GIVE RISE TO ELEVATED
   NOCTURNAL TSTMS WITHIN THIS ZONE OF AIR MASS DESTABILIZATION WITHIN
   A KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT FEATURING STRONG CLOUD-LAYER SHEAR.  AS
   SUCH...A RISK FOR SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF MAINLY SEVERE HAIL WILL
   EXIST LATER TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
   
   ...GULF COAST STATES...
   
   AS MENTIONED ABOVE...SURFACE FRONT HAS STALLED AND WILL BEGIN TO
   RETREAT N AS A WARM FRONT IN RESPONSE TO CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE
   CNTRL/SRN PLAINS.  CURRENT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND 12Z REGIONAL
   SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE PRESENCE OF A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WITHIN THE
   WARM SECTOR...CHARACTERIZED BY DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S AND PW VALUES UP
   TO 1.5 INCHES.  THE AMPLIFICATION OF UPSTREAM TROUGH OVER THE
   ROCKIES WILL RESULT IN THE EWD ADVECTION OF AN EML FROM THE SRN
   PLAINS INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY...EFFECTIVELY CONFINING DIURNAL TSTM
   DEVELOPMENT TO THE CNTRL GULF STATES EWD.  HERE...THE PRESENCE OF A
   MOIST/MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL ALIGN WITH 50+ KT OF DEEP
   WLY SHEAR...RESULTING IN AN ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR AT LEAST
   ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS TODAY.  AS SUCH...LOW PROBABILITIES HAVE BEEN
   INCLUDED.
   
   FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS AREA...SEE MCD 197.
   
   ..MEAD/JEWELL.. 03/01/2012
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z