Mar 3, 2012 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Sat Mar 3 00:34:07 UTC 2012
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Public Severe Weather Outlook

The SPC is forecasting ...an outbreak of tornadoes and severe thunderstorms is likely over a large area from indiana and ohio into kentucky...tennessee...mississippi and alabama today and tonight....   Please read the latest public statement about this event.

Categorical Graphic
20120303 0100 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20120303 0100 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20120303 0100 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20120303 0100 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
   SPC AC 030030
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0630 PM CST FRI MAR 02 2012
   
   VALID 030100Z - 031200Z
   
   ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM WV TO CNTRL MS...
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE MDT RISK FROM
   WRN PA TO THE CNTRL GULF COAST...
   
   ...MAJOR SEVERE WEATHER EVENT CONTINUES FROM THE UPPER OH
   VALLEY...SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE GULF COAST...
   
   NUMEROUS CYCLICAL TORNADIC SUPERCELLS...A FEW POSSIBLY LONG
   TRACK...CONTINUE ACROSS ERN KY.  ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAIN
   QUITE FAVORABLE FOR DAMAGING TORNADOES ACROSS ERN KY INTO WRN
   PORTIONS OF WV AS BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE IS NOW FIRMLY ENTRENCHED
   ALONG THE WEST SIDE OF THE APPALACHIANS.
   
   FARTHER SOUTH...OTHER STRONG SUPERCELLS WITH POSSIBLE TORNADOES
   EXTEND SWWD ACROSS MIDDLE/ERN TN INTO MUCH OF AL/MS.  THESE SRN
   STORMS ARE GRADUALLY INTENSIFYING WITHIN A STRENGTHENING WARM
   ADVECTION REGIME DUE TO AN INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET.  00Z SOUNDINGS
   FROM JAN AND BHM EXHIBIT STEEP LAPSE RATES WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO
   SUPPORT STRONG UPDRAFTS WITHIN AN OTHERWISE STRONGLY SHEARED
   AIRMASS.  LATEST THINKING IS A CONTINUED UPWARD EVOLVING CONVECTIVE
   EVENT WILL BE NOTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE GULF STATES INTO THE
   OVERNIGHT HOURS.  TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS REMAIN
   POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SEVERE RISK AREA.
   
   ..DARROW.. 03/03/2012
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z