Mar 9, 2012 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Fri Mar 9 12:36:22 UTC 2012
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20120309 1300 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20120309 1300 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20120309 1300 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20120309 1300 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
   SPC AC 091233
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0633 AM CST FRI MAR 09 2012
   
   VALID 091300Z - 101200Z
   
   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   SPLIT FLOW WILL PREVAIL OVER THE CONUS...WITH THE MAIN BELT OF THE
   WLYS PERSISTING FROM BC ACROSS S CNTRL CANADA INTO THE NERN U.S.  A
   FAIRLY STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN THIS FLOW WILL PROGRESS FROM THE
   CNTRL GRT LKS TO OFF THE NEW ENGLAND CST BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. 
   IN THE WEAKER SRN STREAM...NM UPR LOW SHOULD RETROGRESS TO SE
   AZ...ALLOWING HEIGHTS TO REBOUND ACROSS THE SRN PLNS/LWR MS VLY.
   
   AT THE SFC...COLD FRONT ATTENDANT TO BOTH THE NM LOW AND THE NERN
   TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ADVANCING SE ACROSS THE NWRN GULF OF
   MEXICO AND THE SERN STATES.  THE BOUNDARY SHOULD WEAKEN AS IT
   REACHES CNTRL FL EARLY SAT.
   
   ...FL AND ADJACENT SERN STATES TODAY...
   EMBEDDED ELEVATED TSTMS WILL PERSIST THROUGH LATER THIS MORNING
   NORTH OF COLD FRONT OVER THE NWRN GULF...SRN LA...AND SRN MS. 
   OTHERWISE...DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION COULD SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT OF
   WDLY SCTD SFC-BASED SHOWERS/STORMS ALONG THE FRONT EWD TO THE S
   ATLANTIC CST.  HOWEVER...GREATER COVERAGE OF DIURNAL STORMS IS
   EXPECTED FARTHER S OVER THE FL PENINSULA...WHERE MORE SIGNIFICANT
   CONVERGENCE WILL EXIST ALONG SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES.  COMBINATION OF
   SEASONABLY MOIST AIR /PW AOA 1.25 INCHES/ AND STRONG SFC HEATING
   SHOULD BOOST SBCAPE TO AOA 1500 J/KG.  WEAK SHEAR SHOULD LIMIT
   UPDRAFT ORGANIZATION/STRENGTH.
   
   ...TX THROUGH EARLY SAT...
   IT WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY MOIST AND UNSTABLE ATOP SHALLOW FRONTAL
   INVERSION OVER CNTRL AND S TX THROUGH SAT.  HEIGHTS WILL RISE
   ALOFT...BUT UPR DIFFLUENCE WILL PERSIST E OF RETROGRESSING UPR LOW. 
   THIS SETUP MAY YIELD PERIODIC BOUTS OF ELEVATED CONVECTION/TSTMS. 
   WHILE A FEW UPDRAFTS MAY BECOME STRONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE
   HAIL...CLOUD LAYER SHEAR AND INSTABILITY EXPECTED TO REMAIN TOO WEAK
   TO SUPPORT A RISK FOR SUSTAINED SVR STORMS.
   
   ..CORFIDI/MOSIER.. 03/09/2012
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z