Mar 9, 2012 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook | |
Updated: Fri Mar 9 12:36:22 UTC 2012 | |
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table |
Categorical Graphic |
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Probabilistic Tornado Graphic |
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point. |
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic |
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point. |
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic |
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point. |
SPC AC 091233 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0633 AM CST FRI MAR 09 2012 VALID 091300Z - 101200Z ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... SPLIT FLOW WILL PREVAIL OVER THE CONUS...WITH THE MAIN BELT OF THE WLYS PERSISTING FROM BC ACROSS S CNTRL CANADA INTO THE NERN U.S. A FAIRLY STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN THIS FLOW WILL PROGRESS FROM THE CNTRL GRT LKS TO OFF THE NEW ENGLAND CST BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. IN THE WEAKER SRN STREAM...NM UPR LOW SHOULD RETROGRESS TO SE AZ...ALLOWING HEIGHTS TO REBOUND ACROSS THE SRN PLNS/LWR MS VLY. AT THE SFC...COLD FRONT ATTENDANT TO BOTH THE NM LOW AND THE NERN TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ADVANCING SE ACROSS THE NWRN GULF OF MEXICO AND THE SERN STATES. THE BOUNDARY SHOULD WEAKEN AS IT REACHES CNTRL FL EARLY SAT. ...FL AND ADJACENT SERN STATES TODAY... EMBEDDED ELEVATED TSTMS WILL PERSIST THROUGH LATER THIS MORNING NORTH OF COLD FRONT OVER THE NWRN GULF...SRN LA...AND SRN MS. OTHERWISE...DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION COULD SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT OF WDLY SCTD SFC-BASED SHOWERS/STORMS ALONG THE FRONT EWD TO THE S ATLANTIC CST. HOWEVER...GREATER COVERAGE OF DIURNAL STORMS IS EXPECTED FARTHER S OVER THE FL PENINSULA...WHERE MORE SIGNIFICANT CONVERGENCE WILL EXIST ALONG SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES. COMBINATION OF SEASONABLY MOIST AIR /PW AOA 1.25 INCHES/ AND STRONG SFC HEATING SHOULD BOOST SBCAPE TO AOA 1500 J/KG. WEAK SHEAR SHOULD LIMIT UPDRAFT ORGANIZATION/STRENGTH. ...TX THROUGH EARLY SAT... IT WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY MOIST AND UNSTABLE ATOP SHALLOW FRONTAL INVERSION OVER CNTRL AND S TX THROUGH SAT. HEIGHTS WILL RISE ALOFT...BUT UPR DIFFLUENCE WILL PERSIST E OF RETROGRESSING UPR LOW. THIS SETUP MAY YIELD PERIODIC BOUTS OF ELEVATED CONVECTION/TSTMS. WHILE A FEW UPDRAFTS MAY BECOME STRONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE HAIL...CLOUD LAYER SHEAR AND INSTABILITY EXPECTED TO REMAIN TOO WEAK TO SUPPORT A RISK FOR SUSTAINED SVR STORMS. ..CORFIDI/MOSIER.. 03/09/2012 CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z