Categorical Graphic
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.

   SPC AC 120057
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0757 PM CDT SUN MAR 11 2012
   
   VALID 120100Z - 121200Z
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY
   REGION...
   
   ...MID AND LOWER MS VALLEY REGION...
   ARCING BAND OF PRECIPITATION EXTENDS IN A COMMA SHAPE FROM NEB EWD
   INTO IA...SEWD INTO ERN MO...AND THEN SSWWD TO THE SWRN LA
   COAST...AHEAD OF THE NEWD-MOVING UPPER SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE
   COLD FRONT.
   
   STRONGEST STORMS ATTM REMAIN ACROSS NERN AND INTO CENTRAL LA...WHERE
   COMPLEX/BOWING LINE SEGMENTS ARE INDICATED.  ALONG WITH THREAT FOR
   LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS...STRONG/VEERING FLOW WITH HEIGHT IS YIELDING
   SHEAR SUPPORTIVE OF LOW-LEVEL ROTATION/ISOLATED TORNADOES.  AS THIS
   STRONGER AREA OF CONVECTION CROSSES THE MS RIVER OVER THE NEXT FEW
   HOURS...A DRIER MS BOUNDARY LAYER SUGGESTS SOME GRADUAL WEAKENING OF
   THE STORMS...AND THUS A CORRESPONDING SLOW DECREASE IN SEVERE
   POTENTIAL LATER THIS EVENING.  MEANWHILE...THOUGH FAVORABLY MOIST
   LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS EXTENDS INTO SERN LA...WEAKER FLOW ALOFT AND THE
   STRONGER FORCING FOR UVV CONTINUING TO SHIFT NEWD SHOULD LIMIT
   POTENTIAL ACROSS THIS PART OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT.
   
   ..GOSS.. 03/12/2012
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z