Categorical Graphic
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.

   SPC AC 221951
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0251 PM CDT THU MAR 22 2012
   
   VALID 222000Z - 231200Z
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF SRN MS AND THE
   FAR WRN FL PANHANDLE...
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF SE OK...WRN AR
   AND FAR NE TX...
   
   ONLY TWO CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE OUTLOOK AT 20Z. THE FIRST
   CHANGE IS TO CONFINE THE CNTRL GULF COAST SLIGHT RISK AREA TO THE
   MOBILE CWA WHERE A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT. THE 5 PERCENT WIND
   DAMAGE PROBABILITY IS CONFINED TO ALABAMA...THE WRN FL PANHANDLE AND
   FAR SRN MS. THE OTHER CHANGE IS TO TRIM THE WRN EDGE OF THUNDER FROM
   PARTS OF SRN IL...WRN TN AND CNTRL MS.
   
   ..BROYLES.. 03/22/2012
   
   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT THU MAR 22 2012/
   
   ...CENTRAL GULF COAST TO TN VALLEY...
   UNDER THE PERIPHERAL INFLUENCE OF A CLOSED/STACKED CYCLONE OVER THE
   SOUTH-CENTRAL PLAINS...A NORTH-SOUTH QUASI-LINEAR BAND OF CONVECTION
   WILL CONTINUE TO MAKE A SLOW BUT STEADY EAST-NORTHEASTWARD
   PROGRESSION ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION THROUGH THIS
   AFTERNOON. ALONG/AHEAD OF THIS QLCS...THE MOST CONSEQUENTIAL
   DESTABILIZATION /ALBEIT MODEST/ WILL BE CONFINED TO COASTAL
   REGIONS...ALTHOUGH LIMITED CLOUD BREAKS/PERIPHERAL HEATING WILL
   OCCUR AHEAD OF THE CONVECTIVE LINE ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST
   REGION/TN VALLEY.
   
   WHILE LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO SLOWLY WEAKEN DURING THE
   DAY...OBSERVED WIND PROFILES /0-1 KM SRH AROUND 300 M2 PER S2/ STILL
   SUPPORT A POTENTIAL FOR QLCS-EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS AND
   BOWS/MESOVORTICES. AS SUCH...POTENTIAL WILL REMAIN FOR AT LEAST
   ISOLATED OCCURRENCES OF WIND DAMAGE/FEW TORNADOES THROUGH THE
   AFTERNOON...AND PERHAPS INTO EARLY EVENING.
   
   ...EASTERN OK/WESTERN AR/FAR NORTHEAST TX...
   WHILE CURRENTLY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF WEAK HEIGHT RISES/NVA
   ALOFT...THE REGION WILL BE INFLUENCED BY AN EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD
   PIVOTING SHORTWAVE TROUGH/JET STREAK ALOFT LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
   EVENING. WHILE THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL REMAIN ONLY MARGINALLY MOIST
   /LOWER 50S F SURFACE DEWPOINTS/...COLD PROFILES ALOFT /-20 TO -25C
   AT 500 MB/ WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MODEST DESTABILIZATION /MLCAPE 500 J
   PER KG OR LESS/. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT RELATIVELY LOW-TOPPED
   TSTMS WILL DEVELOP/INCREASE THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING
   WITHIN A NNE-SSW CORRIDOR ACROSS FAR EASTERN/SOUTHEAST OK INTO
   WESTERN AR/FAR NORTHEAST TX IN VICINITY OF A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH. A
   RELATIVELY FAVORABLE COLOCATION OF STEEP LAPSE RATES ALOFT/AMPLE
   VERTICAL SHEAR WILL SUPPORT SOME LOW-TOPPED SUPERCELLS/BOW
   DEVELOPMENT...WITH HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS A TORNADO OR TWO
   POSSIBLE INTO THIS EVENING.
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z