Categorical Graphic
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.

   SPC AC 230551
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1251 AM CDT FRI MAR 23 2012
   
   VALID 231200Z - 241200Z
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS CENTRAL/SRN IL...LOWER
   OH VALLEY REGION...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   IN MID-UPPER LEVELS...HIGH-AMPLITUDE PATTERN FCST TO CONTINUE...AS
   CYCLONE NOW OFFSHORE BC DEEPENS/REDEVELOPS SWD OVER PAC...POSITIONED
   OFFSHORE NRN CA BY END OF PERIOD. DOWNSTREAM RIDGING OVER CENTRAL
   CONUS WILL AMPLIFY AS PERSISTENT CYCLONIC GYRE -- NOW OVER SERN KS
   -- EXHIBITS NET/SLOW EWD MOTION.  500-MB LOW SHOULD REACH SRN
   INDIANA BY 24/12Z.  MID-UPPER LEVEL DRY SLOT WRAPPING THROUGH ERN
   SEMICIRCLE OF THIS CYCLONE WILL SEPARATE COLD-CORE PRECIP REGIME
   OVER MO/IL/INDIANA/WRN KY FROM WARM-CONVEYOR BAND OVER COASTAL
   AL...WRN FL PANHANDLE...SERN AL AND GA.  
   
   AT SFC...CONVECTIVELY REINFORCED COLD FRONT WAS EVIDENT AT 04Z FROM
   CENTRAL AR SWWD ACROSS E-CENTRAL TX TO AUS AND INK AREAS.  ERN
   SEGMENT OF THIS FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS LOWER MS VALLEY IN STEP WITH
   PROGRESS OF DEEP-LAYER CYCLONE.  BY 224/00Z...FRONT SHOULD REACH SRN
   LA...WRN/NRN AL AND MID TN....ARCHING NWWD INTO CYCLONE.  
   
   ...CENTRAL/SRN IL...LOWER OH VALLEY REGION...
   BAND/ARC OF TSTMS IS FCST TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY FROM
   MIDDAY THROUGH AT LEAST MID-AFTERNOON...IN ZONE OF CONVERGENCE
   LOCATED NE-E OF DEEP-LAYER LOW.  COLD-CORE CONVECTIVE REGIME FCST TO
   SHIFT EWD/NEWD ACROSS OUTLOOK AREA...WITH DOMINANT THREAT BEING
   LARGE HAIL...ISOLATED DAMAGING GUSTS POSSIBLE.  TORNADO POTENTIAL
   APPEARS CONDITIONAL/MRGL ON OUTLOOK SCALE ATTM...BUT MAY BE LOCALLY
   ENHANCED BY STORM INTERACTIONS WITH BANNERS OF BOUNDARY-LAYER
   VORTICITY.  ENHANCED/7.5-8.5 DEG C/KM MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MID
   50S TO NEAR 60 F SFC DEW POINTS WILL JUXTAPOSE WITH SFC HEATING TO
   SUPPORT 500-1200 J/KG MLCAPE...AMIDST 30-45 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR
   MAGNITUDES.  SVR POTENTIAL MAY BACKBUILD SEWD ACROSS OH RIVER OVER
   PORTIONS WRN/NRN KY...BEFORE DIMINISHING DURING EARLY EVENING. 
   
   ...SRN WI/NRN IL TO OH...
   SECONDARY/OUTER ARC OF SCATTERED TO WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS ALSO MAY
   DEVELOP DURING AFTERNOON FROM NRN IL/SRN WI SEWD ACROSS OH...PERHAPS
   AS NWWD EXTENSION OF SERN CONUS CONVECTIVE BAND DESCRIBED BELOW. 
   FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SFC DEW POINTS MID 60S TO NEAR 60 F WILL
   SUPPORT MLCAPE 500-1000 J/KG...AND SOME LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPH
   CURVATURE.  LACK OF STRONGER SPEED SHEAR IN LOW-LEVELS...ALONG WITH
   EFFECTIVE SHEAR MAGNITUDES LESS THAN 40 KT OVER MOST OF THIS
   ARC...SUGGEST MOSTLY MULTICELLULAR MODES WITH OCNL/BRIEF STORM-SCALE
   ROTATION OR BOWING POSSIBLE.  SVR THREAT LOOKS TOO MRGL FOR
   CATEGORICAL OUTLOOK ATTM.
   
   ...CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION TO WRN GA...
   MOIST CONVEYOR AND LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ZONE AHEAD OF SFC FRONT
   WILL SUPPORT MID-AFTERNOON TO EARLY-EVENING MAX IN TSTM
   POTENTIAL...WITH ISOLATED DAMAGING GUSTS NEAR SVR LIMITS POSSIBLE. 
   THIS FAR REMOVED FROM CYCLONE ALOFT...MID-UPPER SUPPORT WILL BE
   MEAGER...WITH NEARLY UNIDIRECTIONAL DEEP-LAYER WIND PROFILES
   LIMITING BULK SHEAR.  DIABATIC SFC HEATING AND DEW POINTS GENERALLY
   IN 60S F...NEAR 70 INVOF COAST...WILL OFFSET MEAGER LAPSE RATES
   ALOFT ENOUGH TO YIELD 500-1500 J/KG MLCAPE.
   
   ..EDWARDS/DARROW.. 03/23/2012
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z