Categorical Graphic
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.

   SPC AC 310100
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0800 PM CDT FRI MAR 30 2012
   
   VALID 310100Z - 311200Z
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR THE OHIO VALLEY...
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR S-CNTRL OK AND N-CNTRL
   TX...
   
   ...OH VALLEY...
   SEVERAL CLUSTERS AND SHORT-LINE SEGMENTS PREVALENT ALONG A COLD
   FRONT FROM CNTRL OH TO SRN IL WILL SHOULD CONTINUE E/SEWD THIS
   EVENING. RELATIVELY ENHANCED SEVERE POTENTIAL SHOULD EXIST ACROSS
   THE NERN PORTION OF THIS ACTIVITY IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE
   PROGRESSIVE IMPULSE NOW OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. ALTHOUGH
   BUOYANCY IS MARGINAL PER THE 00Z ILN/PIT RAOBS...STEEP LAPSE RATES
   AND EFFECTIVE SHEAR AOA 40 KT WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE
   HAIL/WIND THROUGH THIS EVENING BEFORE ACTIVITY DIMINISHES TOWARDS
   MIDNIGHT.
   
   ...CNTRL/SRN PLAINS...
   A WEAK MID-LEVEL IMPULSE OVER IA HAD AIDED IN A FEW TSTMS FROM SERN
   NEB INTO N-CNTRL KS. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD WANE WITH THE ONSET OF
   NOCTURNAL COOLING AND PRESENCE OF A RATHER DRY BOUNDARY LAYER.
   FARTHER S...A STRONGLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WITH MLCAPE OF 2000-3000
   J/KG IS PREVALENT FROM SRN OK SWD INTO CNTRL TX PER 00Z FWD AND
   MODIFIED OUN RAOBS. HOWEVER...A WEAK CAPPING INVERSION...MINIMAL
   CONVERGENCE ALONG THE DRYLINE AND LACK OF ANY APPARENT UPPER-LEVEL
   FORCING MECHANISMS SUGGEST THAT CHANCES FOR TSTM DEVELOPMENT MAY
   REMAIN SLIM. BUT LAST VISIBLE IMAGERY INDICATE A FEW TCU OVER CNTRL
   OK AND IT IS POSSIBLE THAT A STORM OR TWO COULD FORM IN THE NEXT
   COUPLE OF HOURS. SHOULD STORMS BECOME SUSTAINED...SUBSTANTIAL
   VEERING OF THE WIND PROFILE WITH HEIGHT COMBINED WITH THE DEGREE OF
   INSTABILITY WOULD SUPPORT SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY LARGE
   HAIL...AND POTENTIAL FOR EVENTUAL UPSCALE GROWTH INTO A SMALL MCS.
   
   ...LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY...
   CLUSTERS OF TSTMS OVER NERN MEXICO SHOULD PRIMARILY REMAIN OUTSIDE
   OF THE CONUS WITH MEAN NWLY STORM MOTION. 00Z CRP/BRO DEPICT
   SUBSTANTIAL VEERING OF THE WIND PROFILE WITH HEIGHT AND MLCAPE
   AROUND 2000 J/KG. A FEW SEVERE HAIL/WIND EVENTS WILL BE POSSIBLE
   WITH ANY CONVECTION BRUSHING THE VALLEY.
   
   ..GRAMS.. 03/31/2012
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z