Apr 1, 2012 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Sun Apr 1 00:57:30 UTC 2012
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20120401 0100 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20120401 0100 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20120401 0100 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20120401 0100 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
   SPC AC 010054
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0754 PM CDT SAT MAR 31 2012
   
   VALID 010100Z - 011200Z
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR PARTS OF THE DEEP SOUTH...
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR ERN IA...NRN/CNTRL IL...
   
   ...DEEP SOUTH...
   SEVERAL DISCRETE CELLS AND CLUSTERS WITHIN A MODERATE NWLY FLOW
   REGIME SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE EVENING AIDED BY A PLUME OF STEEP
   MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF AROUND 8 DEG C/KM BETWEEN 700-500 MB
   EVIDENT IN 00Z BMX/FFC RAOBS. ALTHOUGH THE ONSET OF NOCTURNAL
   COOLING SHOULD RESULT IN GRADUAL BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZATION AND
   WEAKENING OVERALL INTENSITY OF THE SEVERE THREAT WITH TIME...AT
   LEAST AN ISOLATED RISK MAY CONTINUE FOR SEVERAL HOURS GIVEN THE
   DEGREE OF MID-LEVEL INSTABILITY. CONSOLIDATING COLD POOLS COULD
   FOSTER UPSCALE GROWTH INTO A SMALL SWD-MOVING MCS IN AL...WHICH IS
   DEPICTED IN THE MOST RECENT WRF-NSSL RUN. THUS...HAVE EXPANDED
   SLIGHT RISK SWD AND EXPECT SOME TRANSITION OF MOSTLY LARGE HAIL TO A
   MIX OF SEVERE HAIL/WIND BEFORE THE THREAT DIMINISHES OVERNIGHT.
   
   ...ERN IA...NRN/CNTRL IL...
   AFTERNOON MODEL GUIDANCE IS HIGHLY CONSISTENT IN MAINTAINING A
   RELATIVELY NARROW 30-40 KT SWLY LLJ OVER SRN/ERN IA THIS
   EVENING...THE NRN EXTENT ALREADY CONFIRMED BY THE DMX VAD WIND
   PROFILE. CONTINUED ISENTROPIC ASCENT TO THE NE OF SURFACE WARM FRONT
   ARCING ACROSS SERN IA INTO THE MID-MS VALLEY SHOULD FOSTER
   SATURATION NEAR 850 MB AND REMOVAL OF MUCIN EVIDENT IN 00Z DVN RAOB.
   700-500 MB LAPSE RATES AROUND 8 DEG C/KM WOULD SUPPORT MUCAPE
   REACHING 1000-2000 J/KG AND LIKELY LEAD TO ELEVATED CONVECTION
   DEVELOPING THROUGH TONIGHT. AMIDST A LONG/STRAIGHT
   HODOGRAPH...POTENTIAL FOR SPLITTING ELEVATED SUPERCELLS PRODUCING
   SEVERE HAIL APPEARS SUFFICIENT TO WARRANT AN UPGRADE TO SLIGHT RISK.
   
   ..GRAMS.. 04/01/2012
   
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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z