Categorical Graphic
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.

   SPC AC 020600
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0100 AM CDT MON APR 02 2012
   
   VALID 021200Z - 031200Z
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN AND
   CENTRAL PLAINS EWD INTO E TX/SRN AR AND MUCH OF LA...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS....
   MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING THE SRN EXTENT OF THE
   WRN U.S. TROUGH BECOMING CUT-OFF FROM THE NRN STREAM BY THE START OF
   DAY 1.  THE CLOSED LOW WILL MOVE SLOWLY EWD TODAY ACROSS NM...GIVEN
   THE PRESENCE OF A RATHER STRONG DOWNSTREAM RIDGE EXTENDING NWD FROM
   THE LOWER MS VALLEY/CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES TO THE WRN GREAT
   LAKES.  MEANWHILE...HEIGHTS WILL RISE ACROSS THE SERN STATES AS A
   TROUGH LOCATED ALONG THE MIDDLE/NRN ATLANTIC COAST MOVES EWD.  A
   WEAK MIDLEVEL CIRCULATION...CURRENTLY MOVING SLOWLY NWD INLAND FROM
   THE MID-UPPER TX COAST...SHOULD TRACK NEWD TODAY THROUGH E
   TX/ARKLATEX AND LOWER MS VALLEY REACHING THE OZARKS AND NRN MS BY
   12Z TUESDAY.
   
   THE NRN EXTENT OF THE WRN TROUGH...CURRENTLY MOVING EWD THROUGH THE
   NRN INTERMOUNTAIN WEST PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...IS EXPECTED TO
   TRACK ENEWD THROUGH THE NRN HIGH PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON AS IT PHASES
   WITH A SEPARATE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL CANADA.  MODELS DIFFER
   WITH THE EFFECT THE SRN PORTION OF THESE PHASED TROUGHS HAS ACROSS
   NRN MN...BUT THE 12Z ECMWF/00Z GFS AGREE THAT 40-60 METER HEIGHT
   FALLS SHOULD OCCUR ACROSS THAT REGION MONDAY NIGHT.  
   
   AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE E/SEWD INTO THE UPPER MS
   VALLEY THIS FORECAST PERIOD...AND SWD WHERE IT WILL MERGE WITH A
   NE-SW ORIENTED DRY LINE ACROSS CENTRAL KS THIS AFTERNOON.  THE DRY
   LINE WILL THEN EXTEND SWD FROM A TRIPLE POINT OVER SWRN-SOUTH
   CENTRAL KS THROUGH WRN OK TO CENTRAL TX THIS AFTERNOON.  THE WRN
   EXTENT OF A WARM FRONT...INITIALLY LOCATED OVER NRN MO...IS EXPECTED
   TO SPREAD NWD AND REACH ERN IA/NWRN IL BY THIS EVENING.
   MEANWHILE...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SWD THROUGH THE CAROLINAS
   REACHING ERN GA BY 12Z TUESDAY.  
   
   ...CENTRAL TX/WRN AND CENTRAL OK/CENTRAL AND ERN KS...
   A SHORTWAVE TROUGH...CURRENTLY MOVING INTO THE BASE OF THE WRN
   TROUGH OVER SWRN AZ PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...IS EXPECTED TO MIGRATE
   THROUGH THE SERN-ERN PERIPHERY OF THE PARENT CLOSED LOW TODAY ACROSS
   SW-W TX INTO WRN OK AND POSSIBLY SWRN KS BY 03/00Z.  WEAK HEIGHT
   FALLS ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS...DPVA ATTENDANT TO THE MIGRATORY
   SHORTWAVE TROUGH...AND DIFFLUENT MID-UPPER LEVEL FLOW ALL EXPECTED
   ACROSS THE DRY LINE DURING THE MID-LATE AFTERNOON SUGGEST TSTM
   DEVELOPMENT WILL BE LIKELY FROM CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL TX NWD THROUGH
   WRN OK TO SOUTH CENTRAL KS.  THE STRONGEST LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
   SHOULD EXTEND FROM NWRN OK/ADJACENT KS NEAR THE TRIPLE POINT NEWD
   ALONG THE COLD FRONT/DRY LINE MERGER INTO CENTRAL KS...WITH MUCH OF
   THE KS TSTM ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO BE MORE ANAFRONTAL-TYPE
   DEVELOPMENT.
   
   SURFACE HEATING WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR COMBINED WITH VERY STEEP
   MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES /EXCEEDING 8 C PER KM/...AND SURFACE DEWPOINTS
   IN THE 60S WILL RESULT IN MODERATE TO VERY STRONG INSTABILITY WITHIN
   THE TX/OK/KS PORTION OF THE SLIGHT RISK AREA.  EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR
   WILL BE STRONGEST ACROSS S TO N CENTRAL TX WITH SHEAR VECTORS
   ORIENTED PERPENDICULAR TO THE DRY LINE.  THIS WILL PROVE FAVORABLE
   FOR DISCRETE SUPERCELLS PRODUCING HAIL...SOME VERY LARGE /EXCEEDING
   2 INCH DIAMETER/...AND A COUPLE OF TORNADOES.  ALTHOUGH DEEP LAYER
   SHEAR WILL DECREASE WITH NWD EXTENT...WITH A GREATER POTENTIAL FOR
   PULSE-TYPE STORMS INTO KS...THE PRESENCE OF STRONG INSTABILITY WILL
   SUPPORT VERY LARGE HAIL WITH THIS ACTIVITY AS WELL.  THE THREAT FOR
   AN ISOLATED TORNADO WILL ALSO EXTEND NWD THROUGH WRN OK TO THE
   TRIPLE POINT IN SWRN-S CENTRAL KS.
   
   ...E TX/MUCH OF LA/SRN AR...
   THE AIR MASS IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE ACROSS MUCH
   OF THIS REGION INTO THE AFTERNOON.  FORCING FOR ASCENT ATTENDANT TO
   THE NEWD MOVING MIDLEVEL CIRCULATION WILL SUPPORT WIDESPREAD TSTM
   DEVELOPMENT.  EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR AROUND 30 KT SUGGESTS MULTICELLS
   WILL BE THE PRIMARY STORM MODE WITH AN ATTENDANT THREAT FOR HAIL AND
   STRONG WIND GUSTS.
   
   ...UPPER MS VALLEY/WRN GREAT LAKES TO NRN IL/IND...
   A FEW STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE ELEVATED STORMS ARE POSSIBLE AT THE
   START OF DAY 1 FROM ERN SD INTO NRN MN WITHIN A STRONG LOW LEVEL WAA
   REGIME.  WEAK-MODERATE ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND 25-30 KT OF
   EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR SUPPORT THIS MARGINAL SEVERE HAIL THREAT. 
   ELEVATED CONVECTION/EMBEDDED TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE FROM NERN SD INTO
   NRN MN THROUGH THE DAY...BUT WEAKER INSTABILITY WILL PRECLUDE A
   SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.  A GREATER COVERAGE OF TSTMS...AGAIN MAINLY
   ELEVATED...IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY EARLY EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF
   SRN MN/POTENTIALLY NRN IA...NEAR AND N OF A SURFACE LOW MOVING INTO
   NWRN IA FROM NEB TODAY.  
   
   IF SURFACE BASED STORMS CAN DEVELOP NEAR THE LOW IN IA...THEN THE
   SLIGHT RISK AREA MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED NWD...AS MODERATE TO STRONG
   INSTABILITY WOULD SUPPORT A GREATER SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. 
   OTHERWISE...A STRENGTHENING/VEERING LLJ FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY
   INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES IS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT ELEVATED TSTMS
   DEVELOPING AND SPREADING ESEWD ACROSS THESE AREAS.  ALTHOUGH
   EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN OVER THE WRN GREAT LAKES
   TO NRN IL/IND MONDAY NIGHT...STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MODERATE
   ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT PRIMARILY ISOLATED HAIL WITH THE
   STRONGER STORMS.
   
   ...SRN APPALACHIANS/SC/ERN GA...
   THE AIR MASS IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE BY AFTERNOON
   WITH TSTMS DEVELOPING ALONG AND S OF THE COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH
   THIS REGION.  WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL RESULT IN GENERALLY
   PULSE-TYPE STORMS WITH AN ATTENDANT THREAT FOR ISOLATED STRONG WIND
   GUSTS AND/OR SOME HAIL.
   
   ..PETERS/ROGERS.. 04/02/2012
   
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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z