Categorical Graphic
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.

   SPC AC 160554
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1254 AM CDT MON APR 16 2012
   
   VALID 161200Z - 171200Z
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE UPPER OH
   VALLEY/NORTHEAST STATES...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO DEAMPLIFY DURING THE
   PERIOD...ESPECIALLY OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CONUS. THE UPPER
   TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL WEAKEN/LOSE AMPLITUDE
   TO A DEGREE AS IT CONTINUES TO PROGRESS NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD
   SOUTHERN ONTARIO/QUEBEC AND THE ADJACENT LOWER GREAT LAKES BY
   TONIGHT. AN ASSOCIATED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD MOVING COLD FRONT...OR
   MORE SO CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW...WILL SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR POTENTIAL
   STRONG/SEVERE TSTM DEVELOPMENT...MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON AS DISCUSSED
   BELOW.
   
   ...UPPER OH VALLEY/NORTHEAST STATES...
   ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS MAY BE POSSIBLE EARLY TODAY AS VERY
   STRONG WINDS /50+ KT/ NEAR AND JUST ABOVE A RELATIVELY STABLE
   BOUNDARY LAYER COINCIDE WITH AN EASTWARD MOVING CONVECTIVE LINE.
   MORE SO...A BIT MORE ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT MAY OCCUR INTO THE
   AFTERNOON ACROSS THE UPPER OH VALLEY TOWARD THE NORTHERN/PERHAPS
   CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. THIS WILL BE AS POCKETS OF STRONGER HEATING
   OCCUR AHEAD/EAST OF THE COLD FRONT/MORE SO OUTFLOW-INDUCED EFFECTIVE
   BOUNDARY...WITH POTENTIAL FOR SBCAPE TO AROUND 1000 J/KG BY
   AFTERNOON. GIVEN THAT VERY STRONG DEEP LAYER SOUTHWESTERLY DEEP
   LAYER WINDS /40-50 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR/ WILL EXIST NEAR/BEHIND THE
   EFFECTIVE FRONT...FAST NORTHEASTWARD-MOVING LINE SEGMENTS /AND
   PERHAPS A FEW BRIEF INITIAL SUPERCELLS/ SHOULD OCCUR WHERE DEEP
   CONVECTION DEVELOPS/MATURES DURING THE AFTERNOON. DAMAGING WINDS
   WILL BE POSSIBLE...ALONG WITH SOME SEVERE HAIL AND PERHAPS A BRIEF
   TORNADO. ANY SEVERE THREAT WILL GENERALLY WANE TOWARD/AFTER SUNSET.
   
   ...TN VALLEY/CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION TO SOUTH TX...
   BANDS OF SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL BE ONGOING EARLY TODAY AHEAD OF A SLOW
   EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD MOVING COLD FRONT. GENERAL LARGE SCALE TRENDS
   WILL BE FOR ABATING LOW-MID LEVEL FLOW/MASS CONVERGENCE THROUGH THE
   AFTERNOON...BUT RESIDUAL OUTFLOW/POCKETS OF PRE-EFFECTIVE BOUNDARY
   HEATING WILL NONETHELESS SUPPORT A DIURNAL REINTENSIFICATION OF
   STRONG/POTENTIALLY SEVERE TSTMS...AT LEAST ON AN ISOLATED BASIS.
   THIS SHOULD ESPECIALLY BE THE CASE ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST
   STATES WHERE SOMEWHAT STRONGER DESTABILIZATION IS POSSIBLE.
   REGARDLESS...THE OVERALL SCENARIO IS SUGGESTIVE OF RELATIVELY
   DISORGANIZED STORMS WITH ONLY AN ISOLATED/LIMITED DURATION SEVERE
   THREAT IN THE FORM OF DAMAGING WINDS/SOME HAIL. SEVERE POTENTIAL
   WILL WANE IN MOST AREAS BY EARLY EVENING.
   
   ..GUYER/ROGERS.. 04/16/2012
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z