May 3, 2012 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Thu May 3 19:56:28 UTC 2012
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20120503 2000 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20120503 2000 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20120503 2000 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20120503 2000 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
   SPC AC 031952
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0252 PM CDT THU MAY 03 2012
   
   VALID 032000Z - 041200Z
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CNTRL
   PLAINS...MID TO UPPER MS VALLEY...OH VALLEY AND SRN GREAT LAKES...
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS SOUTHWEST TX...
   
   SEVERAL CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE OUTLOOK AT 20Z. THE FIRST
   CHANGE IS TO REMOVE THE SLIGHT RISK AREA ACROSS CNTRL WI AND NRN
   LOWER MI WHERE INSTABILITY IS WEAK. THE SECOND CHANGE IS TO MAKE THE
   SIGNIFICANT HAIL THREAT AREA SMALLER LOCATED ACROSS FAR NERN
   KS...NRN MO...SE IA AND FAR WRN IL WHERE STRONG INSTABILITY IS
   ANALYZED AND THE DEEP LAYER SHEAR SHOULD BE ADEQUATE FOR SUPERCELL
   DEVELOPMENT. THE MORE DOMINANT SUPERCELLS COULD PRODUCE HAILSTONES
   OF GREATER THAN 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER. ALSO...THE 5 PERCENT WIND
   DAMAGE PROBABILITY IS MOVED NWD ACROSS NRN IA INTO FAR SE MN WHERE
   STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING. ANOTHER CHANGE IS TO
   REMOVE THUNDER FROM PARTS OF NCNTRL MN...ERN ND AND NE SD WHERE
   INSTABILITY IS MINIMAL. ALSO...REMOVED THUNDER FROM SRN MT AND NW WY
   WHERE MODEL FORECASTS FAIL TO DEVELOP CONVECTION LATE THIS
   AFTERNOON. FINALLY...REMOVED THUNDER FROM WRN MS WHERE WATER VAPOR
   IMAGERY SHOWS SIGNIFICANT DRYING TAKING PLACE FROM THE WEST.
   
   ..BROYLES.. 05/03/2012
   
   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1126 AM CDT THU MAY 03 2012/
   
   ...MN/WI EAST TO NRN LOWER MI...
   A COMPLEX SURFACE PATTERN PRESENTS ITSELF THIS MORNING WITH ONGOING
   DEEP CONVECTION FOCUSED NEAR WEAK FRONTAL WAVES IN SRN MN AND
   CNTRL/ERN WI. SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND FORCING EXIST NEAR THE LOW
   CENTERS...AND ALONG/NORTH OF THE FRONTAL ZONE EXTENDING FROM MN TO
   NRN LOWER MI...TO SUSTAIN CLUSTERS OF STORMS...OCCASIONALLY
   PRODUCING SEVERE HAIL...AMIDST EFFECTIVE SHEAR VALUES OF 30-40KT.
   RELATIVELY WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE OVERTURNING OVER THE PAST SEVERAL
   HOURS ACROSS MN AND WI WAS LIKELY LIMITING GREATER STORM INTENSITY
   AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...SOME LARGE SCALE SUPPORT FOR CONTINUING
   ASCENT WITHIN THIS CORRIDOR SHOULD BE PROVIDED BY THE LOW AMPLITUDE
   CONVECTIVELY-INDUCED SHORT WAVE TROUGH NOW OVER IA/MN. AS DOWNSTREAM
   AIRMASS ALONG THE FRONT OVER MI CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE...EXPECT
   MORE ROBUST STORM UPDRAFTS TO DEVELOP WITH THE THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL
   AND HIGH WINDS INCREASING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. REFER TO SWOMCD 674
   FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS AND WATCH PROGNOSIS.
   
   ...IA/MO EAST ACROSS NRN IL...
   A VERY MOIST AND WARMING AIRMASS PRECEDES A WELL-DEFINED OUTFLOW
   BOUNDARY ACROSS NRN/NERN MO AND AN UNPERTURBED WARM AND UNSTABLE
   REGIME WAS IN PLACE EAST OF THE MS RIVER...ACROSS MUCH OF THE
   MIDWEST...WHERE MLCAPE VALUES HAVE ALREADY CLIMBED TO AROUND 2000
   J/KG. AIRMASS RECOVERY WAS ALSO WELL UNDERWAY IN THE WAKE OF THE
   EARLIER MCS OVER IA. WHILE THIS ENTIRE ZONE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN
   SOMEWHAT REMOVED FROM THE STRONGER DEEP-LAYER SHEAR AND
   FORCING...THE CONTINUATION OF STRONG DESTABILIZATION COINCIDENT WITH
   FOCUSED MESOSCALE FORCING NEAR RESIDUAL OUTFLOWS SHOULD CONTRIBUTE
   TO STORM DEVELOPMENT AND SEVERE POTENTIAL LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
   INTO THE EVENING. RESULTING ACTIVITY MAY EXHIBIT UPSCALE GROWTH INTO
   ONE OR MORE FORWARD PROPAGATING SYSTEMS WITH LARGE HAIL AND WIND
   DAMAGE THREAT SPREADING EAST FROM IA/MO TO IL...AND PERHAPS AS FAR
   EAST AS IND/NWRN OH THROUGH LATE EVENING.
   
   ...TX...
   ASCENT ACROSS THE DRYLINE MAY BE ENHANCED COINCIDENT WITH MAX
   HEATING AS A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH TRACKS NEWD FROM MEXICO INTO ERN
   NM. MAJORITY OF MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES AT LEAST ISOLD STORM
   DEVELOPMENT COULD OCCUR BY LATE AFTERNOON FROM THE RIO GRANDE NORTH
   ALONG THE EDWARDS PLATEAU. MAGNITUDE OF INSTABILITY AND VERY WARM
   SURFACE TEMPS IN THE 90S COULD CONTRIBUTE TO DOWNBURST AND LARGE
   HAIL POTENTIAL WITH ANY DEEP CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS.
   
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