Categorical Graphic
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.

   SPC AC 051257
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0757 AM CDT SAT MAY 05 2012
   
   VALID 051300Z - 061200Z
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVR PARTS OF THE NRN PLNS AND
   UPR MS VLY...
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE SERN
   STATES...
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF TX...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   CLOSED LOW NOW OVER NW MT WILL PROGRESS E TO SRN SK THIS PERIOD AS
   ATTENDANT TROUGH REACHES THE NRN HI PLNS/ERN GRT BASIN.  AHEAD OF
   THE MAIN TROUGH...SATELLITE AND UPR AIR ANALYSES SHOW A STREAM OF
   ENHANCED SWLY FLOW WITH EMBEDDED SMALL-SCALE DISTURBANCES ATTM
   EXTENDING FROM ERN UT AND WY INTO THE WRN DAKOTAS.  THIS BELT OF
   ENHANCED FLOW SHOULD SHIFT EWD ACROSS THE NRN PLNS TODAY...AHEAD OF
   THE MAIN TROUGH...AS BROAD RIDGE CONTINUES OVER THE MID MS AND OH
   VLYS.  
   
   AT THE SFC...WRN PART OF DIFFUSE FRONT ATTM EXTENDING FROM THE
   NEB/SD BORDER AREA ESE INTO THE LWR OH VLY EXPECTED TO EDGE NWD 
   INTO SRN/ERN SD AND FAR SRN MN TODAY...WITH A WEAK TRIPLE POINT LOW
   FORMING OVER N CNTRL NEB.  LATER TODAY AND TNGT...A COLD FRONT
   SHOULD BECOME BETTER DEFINED OVER THE NRN HI PLNS.  THIS FEATURE
   WILL THEN SWEEP E/SE ACROSS THE NRN/CNTRL PLNS...WITH A WEAK SFC LOW
   CONTINUING E ACROSS THE MID MO VLY/UPR MIDWEST.
   
   ELSEWHERE...AN UPR LVL IMPULSE NOW OVER BAJA CA SHOULD PROGRESS NE
   TOWARD THE TX BIG BEND BY LATE AFTN...WITH THE SFC DRYLINE EXTENDING
   FROM WRN OK TO THE EDWARDS PLATEAU.  FARTHER E...WEAK UPR
   DISTURBANCE NOW OVER E TX SHOULD TRACK ESE ACROSS THE LWR MS VLY.  
   
   ...N CNTRL STATES TODAY/TNGT...
   REGION INVOF AFOREMENTIONED FRONT AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES OVER SRN
   SD....NRN/ERN NEB...NW IA...AND SW MN WILL BE BECOME VERY UNSTABLE
   AS 60S SFC DEW POINTS OVERSPREAD REGION BENEATH STEEP MID LVL LAPSE
   RATES...WITH LATE AFTN SBCAPE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 2000 TO 4000
   J/KG.
   
   CONTINUED EWD ADVANCE OF LEAD UPR LVL DISTURBANCES AHEAD OF MAIN WRN
   STATES TROUGH...AND SUBSTANTIAL DEGREE OF VERTICAL VEERING IN THE
   WIND PROFILES...WILL RESULT IN HODOGRAPHS VERY FAVORABLE FOR
   ROTATING STORMS...ESPECIALLY E OF THE TRIPLE POINT LOW ALONG THE
   QSTNRY/WARM FRONT.  AT LEAST ISOLD TSTM DEVELOPMENT APPEARS LIKELY
   THERE...AND ALSO FARTHER W INTO THE BLACK HILLS DURING MID-LATE
   AFTN.  RAPID GROWTH INTO SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE HAIL AND
   TORNADOES MAY OCCUR...ESPECIALLY OVER NERN NEB/SE SD INTO PARTS OF
   NW IA AND FAR SW MN.  AS THE COLD FRONT
   ACCELERATES E/SE ACROSS THE NRN/CNTRL PLNS TNGT...UPSCALE
   DEVELOPMENT INTO ONE OR MORE MCSS APPEARS LIKELY.  THESE MAY POSE A
   GRADUALLY DIMINISHING SVR THREAT EWD IN THE UPR MS VLY AND SWD INTO
   THE MID MO VLY EARLY SUN.
   
   ...PARTS OF CNTRL AND SRN TX THIS AFTN/EVE...
   STRONG TO EXTREME INSTABILITY WILL ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP WITH AFTN
   HEATING E OF DRYLINE IN CNTRL AND SRN TX...WITH 700-500 MB LAPSE
   RATES NEAR 9 C/KM.  COUPLED WITH APPROACH OF UPR LVL IMPULSE...SETUP
   MAY YIELD ISOLD LATE DAY TSTMS ALONG AND POSSIBLY AHEAD OF DRYLINE. 
   INTENSITY/COVERAGE SHOULD BE SOMEWHAT LESS THAN YESTERDAY OWING TO
   WEAKER MID LVL WLYS.  BUT 25-30 KT WNWLY DEEP SHEAR COULD FOSTER A
   FEW SUPERCELLS/SUSTAINED STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL/LOCALLY DMGG WIND
   GIVEN STRONG BUOYANCY.
   
   ...GA/SC/SRN NC THIS AFTN...
   FAIRLY STRONG DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION /WITH INCREASING TO SBCAPE TO
   2000 J PER KG/ SHOULD OCCUR OVER PARTS OF GA...SC...AND NC TODAY
   AHEAD OF OVERNIGHT CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS IN THE OH/TN VLYS.  COUPLED
   WITH PRESENCE OF MODERATE WNWLY MID LVL FLOW AND ERN EXTENSION OF
   EML PLUME...ENVIRONMENT COULD SUPPORT REDEVELOPMENT OF STRONG TO
   POSSIBLY SVR PULSE STORMS THIS AFTN OVER PIEDMONT PORTIONS OF GA/SC
   AND NC.  FCST WIND PROFILES AND THE PRESENCE OF EXITING OUTFLOW
   BOUNDARIES TO FOCUS LOW LVL UPLIFT SUGGEST THE POSSIBILITY FOR
   DEVELOPMENT OF FORWARD-PROPAGATING/SE-MOVING BANDS OF STORMS THAT
   COULD YIELD DMGG WIND/SVR HAIL THROUGH EARLY EVE.
   
   ..CORFIDI/GARNER.. 05/05/2012
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z