Categorical Graphic
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.

   SPC AC 091251
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0751 AM CDT WED MAY 09 2012
   
   VALID 091300Z - 101200Z
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE NERN GULF CST INTO THE
   CAROLINAS/SE VA...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   POSITIVE TILT UPR GRT LKS/MID MS VLY TROUGH APPEARS TO BE AMPLIFYING
   ATTM AND SHOULD FURTHER AMPLIFY AS JET STREAK NOW OVER THE MN
   ARROWHEAD ADVANCES SSE INTO IL/IND.  THE TROUGH SHOULD REACH THE MID
   OH VLY THIS EVE...AND THE MID ATLANTIC STATES EARLY THU...ASSUMING A
   MORE NEUTRAL TILT IN THE PROCESS.  ELSEWHERE...NW MEXICO UPR LOW
   EXPECTED TO TURN E ACROSS NRN SONORA TODAY/TNGT...AND BE LOCATED S
   OF EL PASO BY 12Z THU.
   
   AT THE SFC...DIFFUSE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH GRT LKS/MS VLY 
   TROUGH SHOULD PROGRESS SLOWLY E/SE ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC
   STATES...CAROLINAS...AND GA.  THE LEADING WIND SHIFT SHOULD REACH A
   NYC-ORF-FLO-VAD-VPS LINE BY EVE...AND MAY SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR
   STRONG TO POSSIBLY SVR STORMS LATER TODAY.
   
   ...NERN GULF/GA TO CAROLINAS/MID ATLANTIC CST THIS AFTN/EVE...
   COLD FRONTAL ZONE WILL PROGRESS SLOWLY SE ACROSS AL/GA/N FL...AND E
   ACROSS THE CAROLINAS/VA/MD/DE LATER TODAY AND TNGT.  THERMODYNAMIC
   ENVIRONMENT INVOF FRONT WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY WEAK MID LVL LAPSE
   RATES AND ABUNDANT CLOUDS...BUT SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE /PW AOA 1.50
   INCHES/.  POCKETS OF MODERATE LOW LVL DESTABILIZATION WILL
   NEVERTHELESS OCCUR AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE NERN
   GULF CST AND OVER THE ERN CAROLINAS/ERN VA...WHERE AFTN SBCAPE COULD
   REACH 1500 J/KG.
   
   WINDS ACROSS THE SLGT RISK REGION...INITIALLY MODEST...WILL INCREASE
   WITH TIME AS UPR TROUGH AMPLIFIES ESEWD.  THIS WILL BE ESPECIALLY
   TRUE OVER THE ERN CAROLINAS/SE VA...WHERE 500 MB WSWLY FLOW WILL
   APPROACH 40 KTS BY EVE.  COUPLED WITH INCREASING UPR DIVERGENCE IN
   DEVELOPING JET ENTRANCE REGION ASSOCIATED WITH UPR TROUGH...SETUP
   THERE MAY YIELD A FEW LOOSELY-ORGANIZED BANDS OF STORMS WITH STRONG
   TO POSSIBLY LOCALLY DMGG WINDS INTO EARLY TNGT.  FARTHER S...SFC
   HEATING AND SOMEWHAT STEEPER LOW-TO-MID LVL LAPSE RATES MAY SUPPORT
   MORE WIDELY SCTD...W-TO-E MOVING STORMS WITH STRONG WINDS OVER S
   GA/N FL.
   
   ...S TX LATER TODAY/TNGT...
   MOIST...POST COLD-FRONTAL UPSLOPE FLOW WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR
   TSTM DEVELOPMENT OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NE MEXICO THROUGH THE
   PERIOD...WITH THE GREATEST LIKELIHOOD FOR STORMS EXPECTED TO OCCUR
   IN RESPONSE TO SFC HEATING.  THE STORMS SHOULD MOVE GENERALLY EWD
   WITH 30 KT WLY MID LVL FLOW...AND COULD AFFECT S TX WITH A
   CONDITIONAL RISK FOR SVR HAIL/LOCALLY DMGG WIND LATE THIS AFTN INTO
   TNGT.  ABSENCE OF LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT AND LARGELY
   ELEVATED NATURE OF THE CONVECTION SUGGEST THAT ANY SVR THREAT WILL
   REMAIN ISOLD.
   
   ...SE AZ/SRN NM INTO FAR W TX THIS AFTN/EVE...
   WWD-MOVING LOW-LVL OUTFLOW FROM YESTERDAYS TSTMS HAS MOISTENED THE
   BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS PARTS OF NM AND SRN/ERN AZ.  TODAY THE REGION
   WILL REMAIN IN ZONE OF MODERATE ELY MID LVL FLOW ON N SIDE OF
   MEXICAN UPR LOW.  THIS SETUP MAY YIELD A FEW PULSE STORMS WITH
   MARGINALLY SVR HAIL EWD INTO FAR W TX.  A LIMITED THREAT ALSO WILL
   EXIST FOR A FEW STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS IN SE AZ/SRN NM...WHERE
   INVERTED-VEE TYPE SOUNDINGS SUGGEST GUST POTENTIAL WILL BE ENHANCED
   BY SUB-CLOUD EVAPORATIVE COOLING.
   
   ..CORFIDI/GARNER.. 05/09/2012
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z