Categorical Graphic
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.

   SPC AC 160044
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0744 PM CDT TUE MAY 15 2012
   
   VALID 160100Z - 161200Z
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF SC AND NC...
   
   ...CAROLINAS/ERN VA...
   THE LATEST WATER VAPOR/RUC IMAGERY SHOWS SOUTHWEST FLOW IN PLACE
   ACROSS THE ERN SEABOARD WITH A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE IMPULSE MOVING
   THROUGH SC. THIS FEATURE IS LIKELY SUPPORTING THE THUNDERSTORM
   ACTIVITY ONGOING IN THE COLUMBIA VICINITY. MESOANALYSIS IN CNTRL SC
   CURRENTLY SHOWS MLCAPE OF 1200 TO 1500 J/KG WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR AROUND
   35 KT. THIS COMBINED WITH A STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATE WILL SUPPORT
   A SEVERE THREAT EARLY THIS EVENING. A FEW DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL
   BE POSSIBLE BEFORE THE THREAT DIMINISHES IN THE 02Z TO 03Z
   TIMEFRAME.
   
   ...LOWER MI/FAR SE WI/NRN IL/SE IA...
   WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ESEWD INTO
   THE GREAT LAKES REGION. A BAND OF LARGE-SCALE ASCENT IS ANALYZED ON
   THE WRN PART OF THE TROUGH WITH ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE
   LOCATED ALONG A SEWD MOVING COLD FRONT. THESE TO FACTORS ARE
   SUPPORTING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT FROM NRN IL NEWD INTO WRN LOWER
   MI. THE STORMS ARE FEEDING OFF A WEAKLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS WITH SFC
   DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 40S F AND TEMP-DEWPOINT SPREADS AROUND 30 F.
   THE RELATIVELY DRY BOUNDARY LAYER MAY ENHANCE DOWNDRAFT SPEEDS
   ENOUGH FOR A MARGINAL WIND DAMAGE THREAT. THE THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH
   QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET AS INSTABILITY WEAKENS ACROSS THE REGION.
   
   ..BROYLES.. 05/16/2012
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z