Categorical Graphic
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.

   SPC AC 311630
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1130 AM CDT THU MAY 31 2012
   
   VALID 311630Z - 011200Z
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE OH...TN...AND LOWER MS
   VALLEY SWWD ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL/SRN TX...
   
   ...OH VALLEY INTO LOWER MS VALLEY...
   SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE NRN PLAINS/MIDDLE MO VALLEY IS FORECAST
   TO AMPLIFY AS A STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK DIGS SEWD ACROSS
   THE LOWER MO VALLEY.  THIS WILL ALLOW A SURFACE LOW CURRENTLY OVER
   SERN MO TO GRADUALLY DEEPEN AS IT MOVES INTO THE OH VALLEY TONIGHT. 
   A WARM FRONT EXTENDING ESEWD FROM THE LOW WILL LIFT SLOWLY
   NWD...WHILE A COLD FRONT TRAILING SWWD FROM THE LOW ACROSS CENTRAL
   AND SWRN TX WILL MOVE SEWD.  LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SPREAD NWD IN
   ADVANCE OF THE SURFACE LOW AND CONTRIBUTE TO DESTABILIZATION THIS
   AFTERNOON...WITH MUCAPE NEAR 1000 J/KG CLOSE TO THE WARM FRONT AND
   SURFACE LOW.  INSTABILITY INCREASES WITH SWD EXTENT INTO THE LOWER
   MS VALLEY WHERE SURFACE DEW POINTS ARE IN THE LOW 70S IN LA
   RESULTING IN MUCAPE TO 3000 J/KG.
   
   STORMS HAVE INCREASED OVER SERN TX/SWRN LA AS THE SRN PART OF A
   SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES EWD FROM ERN TX...AND ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE
   DEVELOPING IN PARTS OF LA IN THE WEAKLY CAPPED AND QUITE UNSTABLE
   ENVIRONMENT.  SUFFICIENT SHEAR /25-30 KT IN THE LOWEST 6 KM/ IS
   PRESENT TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED MULTICELL STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
   LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
   
   FARTHER NORTH INTO THE OH AND TN VALLEYS...CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO
   INCREASE AHEAD OF TWO MCV/S...ONE LOCATED OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
   AR...AND THE OTHER INDICATED OVER EAST CENTRAL MO.  GENERALLY CLEAR
   SKIES FROM SRN IND/FAR SRN IL INTO THE MID SOUTH WILL PROMOTE STRONG
   DIABATIC HEATING AND CONTRIBUTE TO FURTHER AIR MASS DESTABILIZATION.
    AS THE SWLY MID LEVEL FLOW INCREASES AHEAD OF THE STRENGTHENING
   SHORT WAVE TROUGH...DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL ALSO INCREASE AND SUPPORT
   ORGANIZED STORM STRUCTURES.  ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD EWD WITH
   ONE OR MORE CONVECTIVE LINES FORMING ALONG/AHEAD OF THE COLD
   FRONT...WITH POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS ALONG WITH HAIL. 
   THERE MAY ALSO BE A LOCALLY ENHANCED THREAT FOR SEVERAL TORNADOES
   /MAINLY NEAR THE SURFACE LOW AND WARM FRONT/ THIS AFTERNOON AND
   EVENING.
   
   ...CENTRAL/SRN TX...
   COMPLEX MESOSCALE PATTERN HAS EVOLVED WITH SEVERAL OUTFLOW
   BOUNDARIES/GRAVITY WAVE-LIKE FEATURES PROPAGATING SWD IN ADVANCE OF
   THE SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT.  ELEVATED STORMS ARE SPREADING SWD INTO
   PARTS OF CENTRAL TX AND MAY HAVE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE MARGINALLY
   SEVERE HAIL THE NEXT FEW HOURS.  THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY
   IN THE DEVELOPMENT/EVOLUTION OF SUBSEQUENT STORMS OVER CENTRAL/SOUTH
   CENTRAL TX THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT GIVEN STEEP MID LEVEL
   LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT...ANY STORM CLUSTERS THAT DEVELOP WILL HAVE
   POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.
   
   ...SRN CO/NRN NM...
   
   STEEP LAPSE RATES AND POST-FRONTAL DEWPOINTS IN THE 40S WILL YIELD A
   MARGINALLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING
   WITHIN THE LEE OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN.  LOW-LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW MAY BE
   AUGMENTED BY THE SEWD PROGRESSION OF A WEAK MIDLEVEL
   IMPULSE...GIVING RISE TO ISOLATED STORM DEVELOPMENT LATER TODAY. 
   GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF THE STEEP LAPSE RATES AND 30-35 KT OF DEEP
   NWLY SHEAR...SETUP MAY SUPPORT A MARGINAL WIND/HAIL THREAT THROUGH
   THIS EVENING.
   
   ..WEISS/HURLBUT.. 05/31/2012
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z