Categorical Graphic
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.

   SPC AC 021628
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1128 AM CDT SAT JUN 02 2012
   
   VALID 021630Z - 031200Z
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF SCNTRL AND ERN
   MT...
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM ERN CO ACROSS PORTIONS OF
   THE SRN HIGH PLAINS...
   
   ...MT...
   SHORT WAVE TROUGH EVIDENT IN WV IMAGERY CROSSING WA ATTM WILL
   TRANSLATE QUICKLY EAST THROUGH THE DAY AND ACT TO DAMPEN UPPER RIDGE
   AXIS SITUATED ACROSS MT/WY. INCREASING LARGE SCALE ASCENT SHOULD
   CONTRIBUTE TO STEEPENING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WHERE PW VALUES
   ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES ARE ALREADY AOA 150 PCT OF NORMAL. VSBL
   SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS CLOUD-FREE CONDITIONS UNDER THE RIDGE AXIS
   OVER THE ERN HALF OF MT AND NRN WY AND...DESPITE INCREASING
   CLOUDINESS MOVING IN FROM THE WEST...LOW LEVEL WARMING WILL AID IN
   MODEST DESTABILIZATION COINCIDENT WITH THE ARRIVAL OF STRONGER
   ASCENT WITH THE SHORT WAVE AND ADVANCE/REFORMATION OF ASSOCIATED
   PACIFIC FRONT LATER TODAY. MLCAPE OF 500-800 J/KG AND INCREASING
   WSWLY FLOW ALOFT SHOULD PROVE SUFFICIENT FOR AN INCREASE IN STORM
   ORGANIZATION THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING FROM
   ERN ID ACROSS NRN WY AND MUCH OF ERN MT. EXPECT A NUMBER OF CLUSTERS
   OR BANDS OF STORMS TO SPREAD EAST DURING THIS PERIOD OF THE DAY WITH
   A FEW OF THE STRONGER UPDRAFTS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL UP TO AN
   INCH IN DIAMETER ALONG WITH A SCATTERING OF POTENTIALLY DAMAGING
   WIND REPORTS. GREATEST CONCENTRATION OF SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL
   SHOULD OCCUR OVER SCNTRL/ERN MT WITH MORE ISOLD SEVERE STORMS
   POSSIBLE FROM ERN ID ACROSS NRN WY.
   
   WHILE A RESULTING SMALL MCS OR TWO MAY SPREAD EAST INTO THE WRN
   DAKOTAS TONIGHT...PARTLY SUSTAINED BY LIFT ON THE NOSE OF NOCTURNAL
   LLJ...SEVERE HAIL AND WIND POTENTIAL SHOULD BECOME INCREASINGLY
   CONSTRAINED BY LACK OF INSTABILITY.
   
   ...CO TO SRN HIGH PLAINS...
   TYPICAL HIGH-BASED CONVECTION SHOULD INCREASE ACROSS THE HIGHER
   TERRAIN OF CO/NM THIS AFTERNOON...PERHAPS AIDED BY A COUPLE OF WEAK
   MID/UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES UNDERCUTTING THE RIDGE AXIS ACROSS THE
   FOUR CORNERS REGION. WEAK SELY UPSLOPE FLOW AND SOME MOISTENING
   ALONG RESIDUAL FRONT ON THE WRN FLANK OF DEPARTING SURFACE
   ANTICYCLONE SHOULD AID IN STORMS DEVELOPING EAST INTO AN EVEN MORE
   FAVORABLE REGIME CHARACTERIZED BY MLCAPE OF 500-1000 J/KG AND ABOUT
   30KT DEEP-LAYER SHEAR. A FEW SUPERCELLS OR PERSISTENT MULTICELLS MAY
   POSE A THREAT OF HAIL AND LOCALLY HIGH WINDS FROM ERN CO SWD ACROSS
   ERN NM THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. THIS ACTIVITY MAY
   CONGEAL INTO ONE OR TWO SMALL MCS/S WITH HAIL AND WIND POTENTIAL
   CONTINUING INTO WRN KS...NWRN TX/OK...INTO THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT.
   
   ...MID MS VALLEY/MIDWEST...
   COLD AIR ALOFT AND DCVA ON THE POLEWARD SIDE OF CYCLONICALLY CURVED
   MID/UPPER JET MAX WILL PROVIDE WEAK ASCENT AND DESTABILIZATION FROM
   ERN MO ACROSS THE MIDWEST TODAY AS LARGE OCCLUDED CYCLONE LIFTS FROM
   THE GREAT LAKES INTO CANADA. MAJORITY OF GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT
   LOW-TOPPED TSTMS SHOULD DEVELOP WITHIN A NW-SE AXIS FROM SERN IA
   ACROSS ERN MO TO CNTRL/SRN IL BY LATE AFTERNOON. SHEAR AND LIFT
   WITHIN THIS CORRIDOR MAY BECOME SUFFICIENT TO SUSTAIN A FEW
   PERSISTENT STORMS WHERE MLCAPE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN BELOW 500 J/KG.
   SPC ENSEMBLE HAIL GUIDANCE FROM MOST FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE
   REGION SUGGESTS THAT HAIL SIZE POTENTIAL WILL REMAIN BELOW SEVERE
   CRITERIA.
   
   ...RED RIVER/ARKLATEX...
   THERE IS SOME INDICATION IN STORM SCALE GUIDANCE AND MORNING MODELS
   THAT LATE AFTERNOON CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP ALONG RESIDUAL/RETREATING
   FRONTAL ZONE ALONG THE RED RIVER...FROM NERN TX INTO AR. THIS
   DEVELOPMENT MAY BE AIDED BY AN APPROACHING MCV ACROSS NWRN TX
   ATTM...AS WELL AS LARGE SCALE ASCENT IN THE ENTRANCE REGION OF
   MID/UPPER JET ACROSS THE MIDWEST/MS VALLEY. AIRMASS ALONG THE
   RETREATING BOUNDARY SHOULD BECOME STRONGLY UNSTABLE ON THE EDGE OF
   THE CAP WITH MLCAPE AOA 2000 J/KG POSSIBLE. DEEP-LAYER
   UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR WOULD SUPPORT STORM ORGANIZATION AND THE
   POSSIBILITY OF SUPERCELLS OR LINE SEGMENTS FORMING WITH TIME.
   OVERALL COVERAGE OF THE THREAT AND UNCERTAINTIES REGARDING DEEPER
   STRONGER ASCENT ACROSS THIS REGION PRECLUDES HIGHER /SLGT RISK/
   PROBS AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...A SMALL SLGT MAY NEED TO BE INTRODUCED
   BY 20Z IF CONVECTIVE TRENDS WARRANT.
   
   ..CARBIN/COHEN.. 06/02/2012
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z