Categorical Graphic
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.

   SPC AC 030413
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1113 PM CDT SAT JUN 02 2012
   
   VALID 031200Z - 041200Z
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE MID TO LOWER MO VALLEY
   INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A STRONG UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL EJECT NEWD FROM THE MID ATLANTIC
   COAST INTO THE ATLANTIC DURING THE DAY...WITH RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT
   OVER ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND FROM VA NWWD INTO OH. FARTHER N NEAR
   THE UPPER LOW CENTER...RELATIVELY SMALL HEIGHT FALLS WILL OCCUR FROM
   PA INTO THE DELMARVA...AND COOL AIR WILL REMAIN ALOFT. CYCLONIC LOW
   LEVEL FLOW AROUND A BROAD LOW PRESSURE AREA CENTERED OVER SRN NEW
   ENGLAND ALONG WITH DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD PROVE SUFFICIENT FOR SOME
   LOW TOPPED CONVECTION FROM PA/ERN OH SEWD ACROSS MD AND NRN VA.
   
   TO THE W...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY ACROSS THE ROCKIES IN
   RESPONSE TO A TROUGH OVER THE ERN PACIFIC. SLY FLOW WILL PERSIST
   ACROSS THE PLAINS...BENEATH RELATIVELY COOL AIR ALOFT WITH 500 MB
   TEMPERATURES AROUND -10 C. MODELS INDICATE THAT A WEAK UPPER
   SHORTWAVE WILL EXIST ACROSS KS EARLY...PERHAPS IN RESPONSE TO SOME
   ONGOING CONVECTION...AND THIS FEATURE MAY PERSIST SEWD INTO MO
   DURING THE DAY.
   
   MEANWHILE...A SURFACE TROUGH SHOULD DEEPEN OVER WRN KS INTO THE
   OK/TX PANHANDLES AND NEAR THE OK BORDER...WITH STRONG HEATING ALONG
   A DRYLINE/SFC TROUGH WITH WIND SHIFT. MID TO UPPER 60S F DEWPOINTS
   ALONG WITH HEATING AND AFOREMENTIONED COOL AIR ALOFT SHOULD YIELD A
   STRONGLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS BY AFTERNOON...FROM OK INTO NEB.
   
   ...KS...OK...NEB...MO...WRN IA...
   EARLY CONVECTION IS EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF ERN KS...NERN OK...AND
   MAYBE SWRN MO/NWRN AR ASSOCIATED WITH CONVECTION FROM LAST EVENING.
   WITH AT LEAST MID 60S F DEWPOINTS UPSTREAM...AND SWLY 850 MB
   FLOW...SOME OF THIS CONVECTION MAY PERSIST THROUGH THE MORNING.
   HOWEVER..IT IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE PARTICULARLY STRONG OR ORGANIZED. 
   
   LATER IN THE DAY...THE DRYLINE/SFC TROUGH WILL DESTABILIZE FROM NWRN
   TX INTO NEB. CIN WILL ERODE BY LATE AFTERNOON AND SFC CONVERGENCE
   SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO INITIATE STORMS. ALTHOUGH SHEAR PROFILES WILL BE
   MARGINAL...WINDS WILL VEER FROM THE LOW TO MID LEVELS...PRODUCING A
   SMALL BUT FAVORABLY SHAPED HODOGRAPH FOR SLOW MOVING SUPERCELLS
   CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS. RESIDUAL
   OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES MAY FURTHER AUGMENT LOW LEVEL SHEAR...WITH A FEW
   TORNADOES POSSIBLE OVER ERN KS/NERN OK AND WRN MO WHERE SFC T/TD
   SPREADS WILL BE LOWER AND EFFECTIVE SRH MIGHT BE
   MAXIMIZED...DEPENDING ON EVOLUTION OF EARLY CONVECTION. 
   
   OTHER EARLY CONVECTION MAY BE ONGOING OVER SD...SHIFTING SEWD WITH
   THE NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET AND WITHIN THE THETA-E AXIS. PROFILES
   WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS HERE AS WELL WITH LARGE
   HAIL...DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND PERHAPS A TORNADO.
   
   STORMS OVER KS/OK/MO MAY CONGEAL INTO AN MCS...POSSIBLY AFFECTING
   ERN OK...MO...AND NRN AR.
   
   ...ERN OH/PA INTO NRN VA...MD AND DE...
   EARLY CONVECTION IS LIKELY TO BE ONGOING ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT
   LAKES IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH. THIS TROUGH WILL
   GRADUALLY DEVELOP ESEWD...WITH LOW LEVEL WINDS VEERING TO NWLY OVER
   MUCH OF THE AREA. STRONG DAYTIME HEATING BENEATH COLD TEMPERATURES
   ALOFT WILL RESULT IN MUCAPE ON THE ORDER OF 500 J/KG...AND EROSION
   OF CIN RELATIVELY EARLY/BEFORE 18Z/. ALTHOUGH STORMS WILL BE LOW
   TOPPED...DEEP LAYER SHEAR MIGHT FAVOR SOME ORGANIZATION...WITH THE
   MOST LIKELY STORM MODE SMALL CELLS OR LINE SEGMENTS...TRAVELING
   RAPIDLY SEWD WITH A MARGINAL WIND AND HAIL THREAT. STORMS MAY
   PERSIST INTO THE EARLY EVENING AS THERE WILL BE LITTLE CIN INCREASE
   EVEN AFTER SUNSET.
   
   ..JEWELL/LEITMAN.. 06/03/2012
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z