Categorical Graphic
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.

   SPC AC 041120
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0620 AM CDT MON JUN 04 2012
   
   VALID 041300Z - 051200Z
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF EASTERN
   ORE/WA...ID...AND WESTERN/CENTRAL MT...
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN NM AND
   WEST TX...
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE MID MS VALLEY ACROSS
   PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST...
   
   ...MS/AL/GA...
   WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE EASTERN
   STATES TODAY...WITH THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF THE STRONGER
   NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ALOFT EXTENDING FROM THE MID MS VALLEY INTO THE
   SOUTHEAST. MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES SEVERAL SMALLER-SCALE SHORTWAVE
   TROUGHS EMBEDDED IN THIS FLOW REGIME THAT WILL AFFECT THE SOUTHEAST
   STATES TODAY.  HOWEVER...THESE FEATURES ARE NOT EASILY APPARENT IN
   WATER VAPOR LOOPS DUE TO NEARBY CONVECTION AND ASSOCIATED ANVIL
   CLOUD COVER.  NEVERTHELESS...IT APPEARS THE CORRIDOR FROM CENTRAL AL
   INTO SOUTHEAST GA WILL SEE A ROUND OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATER
   TODAY.
   
   CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY ORGANIZING OVER NORTHERN MS/AL.  THESE
   STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO PROPAGATE RATHER QUICKLY SOUTHEASTWARD TODAY
   INTO CENTRAL GA BY EARLY AFTERNOON...AND OFFSHORE BY LATE AFTERNOON.
   FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST 30-40 KNOT WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND
   SUFFICIENT CAPE TO PROMOTE ORGANIZED/BOWING STORM STRUCTURES AND AN
   ENHANCED RISK OF LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS.  THE STRONGEST STORMS MAY
   ALSO CONTAIN LARGE HAIL.  REFER TO MCD NUMBER 1048 FOR FURTHER
   SHORT-TERM DETAILS.
   
   ...MO/IL/TN/AR...
   ANOTHER UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO TRACK SOUTHWARD
   ACROSS THE MID MS VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON.  DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S AND
   STRONG HEATING WILL LEAD TO AN AXIS OF MODERATE CAPE OVER EASTERN MO
   AND SOUTHERN IL...WHERE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED. 
   STORMS WILL TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
   EVENING INTO WEST KY/TN POSING AND RISK OF DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL.
   
   ...WA/ORE/ID/MT...
   A POTENT UPPER TROUGH IS APPROACHING THE NORTHERN CA COAST.  THIS
   SYSTEM WILL BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED THIS EVENING AND TRACK
   NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.  AHEAD OF THE
   TROUGH...INCREASING MID/UPPER LEVEL WIND FIELDS AND LARGE SCALE LIFT
   WILL OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN AND NORTHERN
   ROCKIES.  STEEPENING LAPSE RATES AND DAYTIME HEATING WILL PROMOTE
   SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG AN AXIS FROM NORTHEAST NV
   INTO EASTERN ORE.  STORMS THAT FORM WILL LIKELY TRACK RAPIDLY
   NORTHWARD INTO ID AND WESTERN MT.  BOWING STRUCTURES AND A FEW
   SUPERCELLS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH THE RISK OF
   DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.  LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT PARTICULARLY
   STRONG...BUT LOCAL TERRAIN EFFECTS COULD ALSO RESULT IN A TORNADO OR
   TWO.  THE TIMING OF THE UPPER TROUGH IS NOT QUITE AS FAVORABLE FOR
   SEVERE STORMS AS DEPICTED IN EARLIER MODEL RUNS...WITH THE MAIN
   FORCING ARRIVING AFTER DARK.
   
   ...EASTERN NM/WEST TX...
   AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL BE IN PLACE TODAY OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH
   PLAINS...RESULTING IN WEAK FLOW ALOFT.  HOWEVER...STRONG DAYTIME
   HEATING AND SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LIKELY YIELD
   AFTERNOON MLCAPE VALUES OF 1500-2000 J/KG OVER WEST TX ALONG WITH
   SURFACE T-TD SPREADS OF 40+ DEG F.  MOST MODEL SOLUTIONS INDICATE
   SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM OVER EASTERN NM DURING THE LATE
   AFTERNOON AND SPREAD EASTWARD INTO WEST TX DURING THE EVENING. 
   DESPITE WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR...FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES MAY
   RESULT IN A FEW INTENSE MULTICELL STORMS CAPABLE OF LOCALLY DAMAGING
   WINDS AND HAIL.
   
   ..HART/MOSIER.. 06/04/2012
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z