Categorical Graphic
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.

   SPC AC 122042
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK CORR 1
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0342 PM CDT TUE JUN 12 2012
   
   VALID 122000Z - 131200Z
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER MUCH OF THE HIGH PLAINS
   SWD TO THE GULF COAST...
   
   CORRECTED FOR GRAPHICS
   
   CURRENT OUTLOOK REMAINS GENERALLY ON TRACK GIVEN CURRENT AND
   EXPECTED EVOLUTION OF SVR CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
   MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO SLGT RISK ACROSS WEST TEXAS TO ACCOUNT FOR
   CONVECTIVE TRENDS IN THE TRANS PECOS REGION.
   
   ...SRN PLAINS...
   TSTMS DVLPG OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTH-CENTRAL
   CO/NORTH-CENTRAL NM WILL E/SE THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH SUPERCELLS
   CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND ISOLATED
   TORNADOES. 12Z MESOSCALE MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT THESE
   STORMS...AS WELL AS ADDITIONAL TSTMS THAT MAY DEVELOP OVER W TX
   THROUGH EVENING...WILL MERGE INTO ONE OR MORE FORWARD-PROPAGATING
   SVR MCS/S POSING A DAMAGING WIND THREAT AND MOVE SEWD ACROSS AREAS
   FROM THE TX PANHANDLE SWD INTO CENTRAL TX OVERNIGHT.
   
   TSTMS DEVELOPING NORTH OF MARFA ARE EXPECTED TO FURTHER INTENSIFY IN
   THE PRESENCE OF 40 KT DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR
   MASS. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE.  
   
   
   ...NRN PLAINS...
   REF MCD #1141 FOR SHORT-TERM CONVECTIVE TRENDS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NE
   CO/WRN NEB/SWRN SD.
   
   THINKING ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE CONUS IS UNCHANGED FROM
   PREVIOUS OUTLOOK.
   
   ..BUNTING.. 06/12/2012
   
   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1125 AM CDT TUE JUN 12 2012/
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   
   LARGE-SCALE PATTERN WILL UNDERGO SLIGHT DE-AMPLIFICATION DURING THE
   D1 PERIOD AS PRIMARY UPPER TROUGH MOVES FROM ONTARIO INTO QUEBEC. 
   12Z UPPER-AIR ANALYSIS DEPICTS A COUPLE OF HIGHER MOMENTUM FLOW
   CHANNELS IN THE MID TO UPPER-TROPOSPHERE...ONE FROM THE PACIFIC NW
   THROUGH CNTRL PLAINS INTO GREAT LAKES...AND THE OTHER FROM SRN CA
   INTO SRN HIGH PLAINS AND S TX.  WITHIN THIS BROADER-SCALE
   PATTERN...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A NUMBER OF WEAK
   PERTURBATIONS...TWO OF WHICH MAY BE INSTRUMENTAL IN SEVERE TSTM
   DEVELOPMENT LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT.  THE FIRST IS EMBEDDED WITHIN
   POLAR BRANCH OF WESTERLIES OVER N-CNTRL WY WHICH WILL TRANSLATE EWD
   INTO WRN SD BY AFTERNOON.  THE OTHER IS A BIT WEAKER AND LOCATED IN
   SUB-TROPICAL AIR STREAM NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS...WITH THIS FEATURE
   MOVING INTO THE SRN HIGH PLAINS BY LATE AFTERNOON INTO EVENING.
   
   AT THE SURFACE...SEGMENT OF COLD FRONT FROM CENTRAL OH TO MS-OH
   RIVER CONFLUENCE WILL ADVANCE THROUGH THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND INTO
   THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS AND TN VALLEY.  THE WRN EXTENSION OF SYNOPTIC
   FRONT HAS BEEN MASKED BY A NUMBER OF CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
   RESIDING ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS WITH A BROAD CONFLUENCE AXIS
   STRETCHING FROM THE RED RIVER INTO PERMIAN BASIN OF TX. 
   ELSEWHERE...A LEE CYCLONE DEVELOPING ALONG THE CHEYENNE RIDGE WILL
   MOVE SLOWLY EWD TODAY WITH A LEE TROUGH BECOMING BETTER-DEFINED WITH
   TIME ACROSS THE CO FRONT RANGE.  
   
   ...SRN PLAINS...
   
   TSTMS WHICH INITIATED LATE MONDAY NIGHT OVER NERN NM ARE ONGOING
   OVER NWRN TX...FORCED BY A WEAK MIDLEVEL IMPULSE AND LOW-LEVEL
   WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT ABOVE SHALLOW OUTFLOW BOUNDARY/FRONT.  AIR
   MASS AHEAD OF THESE STORMS ACROSS N-CNTRL/CNTRL TX SHOULD UNDERGO
   RAPID DESTABILIZATION TODAY OWING TO THE PRESENCE OF STEEP MIDLEVEL
   LAPSE RATES AND AN INCREASINGLY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WITH SWD EXTENT
   INTO CNTRL TX WHERE AFTERNOON MLCAPE WILL APPROACH 2500-3500 J/KG. 
   IN FACT...THERE IS SOME INDICATION IN CONVECTION-ALLOWING AND
   DETERMINISTIC MESOSCALE MODEL GUIDANCE THAT THESE STORMS COULD GROW
   UPSCALE INTO A FORWARD-PROPAGATING MCS WITH A DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL
   THREAT SPREADING SEWD TOWARD THE SABINE RIVER VALLEY AND UPPER TX
   COAST.
   
   OVER THE HIGH PLAINS...OUTFLOW IN THE WAKE OF NWRN TX TSTMS WILL
   ENHANCE LOW-LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW COMPONENT...WHICH WHEN COUPLED WITH
   THE POTENTIAL INFLUENCE OF WEAK FOUR CORNERS IMPULSE...WILL FOSTER
   WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NERN/E-CNTRL NM INTO WRN
   TX BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON.  AMBIENT ENVIRONMENT WILL BE CHARACTERIZED
   BY MLCAPE OF 1500-2500 J/KG AND 40-50 KT OF DEEP WLY SHEAR WHICH
   WILL FAVOR SUPERCELLS AS THE INITIAL STORM MODE WITH AN ASSOCIATED
   RISK FOR A FEW TORNADOES...DAMAGING WINDS AND VERY LARGE HAIL. 
   THEREAFTER...THERE IS REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE
   CONVECTION-ALLOWING AND MESOSCALE MODELS THAT STORMS WILL MERGE INTO
   ONE OR MULTIPLE MCSS WHICH WOULD PROGRESS SEWD INTO LOWER ELEVATIONS
   OF THE SRN PLAINS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SWATHS OF DAMAGING WINDS
   AND LARGE HAIL ALONG SYSTEM TRACK/S/.
   
   ...NRN/CNTRL HIGH PLAINS...
   
   FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH WY IMPULSE WILL AUGMENT LOW-LEVEL
   CONVERGENCE ASCENT INVOF LEE CYCLONE AND TROUGH TO GIVE RISE TO
   WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS BY MID AFTERNOON FROM WRN SD INTO ERN CO. 
   WHILE THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BE LESS MOIST THAN POINTS TO THE
   SOUTH...STEEP LOW TO MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL YIELD MLCAPE VALUES
   OF 1000-1500 J/KG IN THE PRESENCE OF 40-50 KT DEEP WNWLY SHEAR. 
   HERE TOO...SUPERCELLS APPEAR LIKELY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE
   HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND PERHAPS A TORNADO.
   
   ...SRN LA...
   
   THE INFLUX OF A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AND VERY MOIST AIR MASS INTO
   SWD-PROPAGATING MCS WILL MAINTAIN ROBUST UPDRAFT DEVELOPMENT ALONG
   LEADING EDGE OF SYSTEM COLD POOL.  WHILE SOME LARGE HAIL IS
   POSSIBLE...DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY HAZARD.
   
   ...UPPER OH VALLEY/LOWER GREAT LAKES SWD INTO THE CNTRL
   APPALACHIANS...
   
   UPLIFT ALONG COLD FRONT AND DEEPER-LAYER FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH A
   VORTICITY MAXIMUM MOVING ACROSS THE REGION WILL SUPPORT AN INCREASE
   IN TSTM ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING.  WHILE VERTICAL SHEAR
   WILL REMAIN SUB-OPTIMAL FOR STORM ORGANIZATION/SUSTENANCE...THE
   PRESENCE OF A MOIST...MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS /I.E. MLCAPE
   VALUES OF 1000-2000 J PER KG/ WILL SUPPORT A FEW VIGOROUS STORMS
   CAPABLE OF MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS INTO
   THIS EVENING.
   
   ...MID ATLANTIC AND SERN STATES...
   
   12Z SOUNDINGS AND SATELLITE-DERIVED PW IMAGERY INDICATE THE PRESENCE
   OF A VERY MOIST AIR MASS /I.E. PW VALUES OF 1.75-2.00 INCHES/ WHICH
   WILL CONTRIBUTE TO POCKETS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY BY AFTERNOON. 
   THIS IS ESPECIALLY THE CASE ACROSS PORTIONS OF GA/NRN FL INTO SC
   WHERE VISIBLE SATELLITE SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER DAYTIME
   HEATING.  A DEVELOPING LEE TROUGH WILL COMBINE WITH EXISTING
   CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND AN MCV OVER THE SAVANNAH RIVER
   VALLEY TO PROMOTE SCATTERED TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON.  VERTICAL SHEAR
   WILL REMAIN WEAK...BUT THE HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT WILL BE FAVORABLE
   FOR WET MICROBURST FORMATION OWING TO WATER LOADING EFFECTS.
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z