Categorical Graphic
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.

   SPC AC 231626
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1126 AM CDT SAT JUN 23 2012
   
   VALID 231630Z - 241200Z
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM NERN NY INTO NEW
   ENGLAND...
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE NRN INTERMOUNTAIN
   REGION...
   
   ...NERN NY INTO NEW ENGLAND...
   UPPER SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER WRN NY IS ASSOCIATED WITH COLD MID
   LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND IS FORECAST TO PROGRESS EWD ACROSS NEW
   ENGLAND THROUGH TONIGHT.  RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH SURFACE
   DEW POINTS IN THE 50S TO NEAR 60 COUPLED WITH STRONG DIABATIC
   HEATING IS RESULTING IN AN UNSTABLE AIR MASS WITH MLCAPE TO 1000
   J/KG ATTM...WITH ADDITIONAL DESTABILIZATION LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON. 
   WIDELY SCATTERED STRONG TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED FROM NERN NY INTO ME
   AND ADDITIONAL DEEP CONVECTION IS LIKELY AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES
   EWD...WITH POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER CELLS TO PRODUCE MARGINALLY SEVERE
   HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS.  FOR MORE DETAILS SEE MCD 1251.
   
   ...NRN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION...
   UPPER LOW OFF THE PACIFIC NW COAST IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
   QUASI-STATIONARY THROUGH TONIGHT AS SEVERAL SHORT WAVE PERTURBATIONS
   ROTATE NWD ALONG THE ERN PERIPHERY OF THE CIRCULATION.  PERSISTENT
   MOIST ELY LOW LEVEL FLOW OVER MT HAS RESULTED IN SURFACE DEW POINTS
   REACHING THE LOW 50S ACROSS THE REGION...WHICH WILL SUPPORT
   INCREASING INSTABILITY /MLCAPE REACHING 1000 J PER KG/ AS CLOUDS
   THIN/DIMINISH AND DIABATIC HEATING INCREASES THIS AFTERNOON. 
   ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP BY LATE AFTERNOON.  DIFLUENT
   UPPER LEVEL FLOW AND VEERING WIND PROFILES IN THE LOW/MID LEVELS
   WILL ENHANCE STORM INTENSITY AND ORGANIZATION WITH POTENTIAL FOR
   SUPERCELL STRUCTURE TO DEVELOP.  LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WIND
   GUSTS...AND A TORNADO OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH STRONGER
   CELLS...MAINLY LATER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.
   
   ...CAROLINAS...
   A WEAKENING COLD FRONT AMIDST VERY WARM/MOIST CONDITIONS SHOULD
   PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR MORE CONCENTRATED AFTERNOON TSTMS. MID LEVEL
   NWLY WINDS ARE GENERALLY AOB 20 KT SO THE BULK OF THIS CONVECTION
   SHOULD BE MULTICELLULAR IN NATURE. HOWEVER...A FEW STORM MERGERS AND
   BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS COULD LEAD TO INTENSE/PERSISTENT UPDRAFTS OR
   STORM CLUSTERS CAPABLE OF ISOLD WET MICROBURSTS AND WIND DAMAGE.
   
   ...NRN PLAINS TO UPPER MS VALLEY...
   THE TROUGH MOVING OUT OF CANADA WILL BRING A COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS
   THE UPPER MS VALLEY AREA BUT FORCING ALONG THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD
   REMAIN WEAK GIVEN THE INTENSE BUILDING UPPER RIDGE. WHILE ONLY WEAK
   DESTABILIZATION IS FORECAST ALONG THE FRONT AND PREFRONTAL TROUGH
   ACROSS THE REGION LATER TODAY...STRENGTHENING DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELDS
   COULD AID STORM ORGANIZATION AND SOME CHANCE FOR HAIL FOR ANY
   PERSISTENT STORM THAT DEVELOP.
   
   ...LOWER MO VALLEY REGION...
   MOSAIC RADAR LOOP SUGGESTS AN MCV HAS DEVELOP OVER WRN IA IN
   ASSOCIATION WITH THE CONVECTIVE CLUSTER MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. 
   STRONGEST STORMS HAVE BEEN CONCENTRATED ALONG THE SRN EDGE OF THE
   SYSTEM...WITH ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING ESEWD ACROSS NERN
   KS TOWARD NWRN MO.  THIS CONVECTION MAY POSE A MARGINAL THREAT FOR
   HAIL AND WIND GUSTS INTO EARLY AFTERNOON...BUT IT IS EXPECTED TO
   SLOWLY WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INTO A LESS UNSTABLE AIR MASS EAST OF THE
   LOW LEVEL JET AXIS.  THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR NEW STORMS TO FORM IN
   THE WAKE OF THIS INITIAL CONVECTION OVER ERN NEB/WRN IA/NERN KS
   LATER THIS AFTERNOON WITHIN A ZONE OF PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL WARM
   ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW LEVEL JET.  STRONGER CELLS MAY
   ALSO PRODUCE ISOLATED HAIL AND STRONG WINDS
   
   ..WEISS/LEITMAN.. 06/23/2012
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z