Categorical Graphic
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.

   SPC AC 241952
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0252 PM CDT SUN JUN 24 2012
   
   VALID 242000Z - 251200Z
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE FL GULF COASTAL
   REGION...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   SEVERAL CHANGES ARE BEING MADE TO THE PRIOR FORECAST THIS PACKAGE --
   PRIMARILY DOWNGRADES OF THE ONGOING SEVERE WEATHER PROBABILITIES. 
   SLIGHT RISK WILL BE MAINTAINED THIS FORECAST ACROSS THE FL GULF
   COASTAL AREAS AND PART OF CENTRAL FL...BUT HAVE TRIMMED THE SLIGHT
   RISK WWD/AWAY FROM THE SERN FL ATLANTIC COAST WHERE WEAKER SHEAR IS
   PROGGED THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.  OTHERWISE...EXPECT POTENTIAL
   FOR ISOLATED/BRIEF TORNADOES TO CONTINUE WITHIN THE ERN AND NERN
   QUADRANT OF T.S. DEBBY.
   
   ELSEWHERE...SEVERE WEATHER PROBABILITY HAS BEEN REMOVED FROM THE NRN
   INTERMOUNTAIN REGION AND INTO ND...AS EARLIER ND STORMS HAVE
   DISSIPATED AND NEW CONVECTION IS NOT EXPECTED.  A FEW STORMS MAY
   DEVELOP OVER PARTS OF NWRN MT...BUT APPRECIABLE SEVERE THREAT IS NOT
   ANTICIPATED.  AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM MAY OCCUR OVER PARTS OF THE
   NRN HIGH PLAINS OF ERN WY/WRN SD/WRN NEB AND VICINITY...AND THUS
   WILL MAINTAIN A CORRIDOR OF LOW /5%/ SEVERE PROBABILITY IN THIS
   AREA.
   
   THE SLIGHT RISK AREAS WILL ALSO BE REMOVED FROM THE IL AREA AND FROM
   THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION ATTM.  STORMS OVER IL HAVE
   DISSIPATED...AND CONVECTION ONGOING INVOF THE LOWER LAKES AREA
   REMAINS WEAK -- GIVEN ONLY MINIMAL DESTABILIZATION WHICH HAS
   OCCURRED THIS AFTERNOON.  WHILE AN ISOLATED STRONGER CELL MAY OCCUR
   ACROSS THIS REGION INVOF THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT...ANY WIND/HAIL
   POTENTIAL SHOULD REMAIN MARGINAL/ISOLATED.
   
   FINALLY...SCATTERED STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED IN LEE OF THE APPALACHIANS
   FROM NRN VA SWD/SWWD ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND THEN WSWWD INTO THE
   GULF COAST STATES.  THOUGH MODERATE DESTABILIZATION HAS OCCURRED
   ACROSS THIS REGION -- PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND N
   GA...WEAK FLOW SUGGESTS LITTLE POTENTIAL FOR APPRECIABLE UPDRAFT
   ORGANIZATION/LONGEVITY...AND THEREFORE ONLY ISOLATED/PULSE-TYPE
   SEVERE THREAT IS EVIDENT THROUGH EARLY EVENING.
   
   ..GOSS.. 06/24/2012
   
   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1134 AM CDT SUN JUN 24 2012/
   
   ...WRN/SRN FL PENINSULA INTO THE NERN GULF COAST...
   STRONG WINDS ON THE ERN PERIPHERY OF TS DEBBY ARE RESULTING IN LARGE
   LOW LEVEL SHEAR/SRH ASSOCIATED WITH ENLARGED CLOCKWISE TURNING
   HODOGRAPH.  THIS IS SUPPORTING SMALL TRANSIENT SUPERCELLS EMBEDDED
   WITHIN LARGER CONVECTIVE SHIELD/OUTER BANDS OVER PARTS OF WRN/SRN
   FL.  THREAT OF A FEW BRIEF TORNADOES AND STRONG WIND GUSTS IS
   EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AS DEBBY MOVES SLOWLY NWD.
   
   ...NERN MT INTO CENTRAL ND...
   SEVERAL STRONG/SEVERE STORMS ARE CONTINUING THIS LATE MORNING OVER
   EXTREME NERN MT INTO WEST CENTRAL ND.  THE CONVECTION IS LIKELY
   ELEVATED ALONG THE NERN EDGE OF THE EML/CAPPING INVERSION AS SEEN IN
   12Z UPPER AIR DATA...WITH VERY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES PROMOTING
   INTENSE UPDRAFTS.  THERE HAS BEEN UNCERTAINTY IN THE LONGEVITY OF
   THIS ACTIVITY GIVEN ITS PROXIMITY TO THE UPPER RIDGE...BUT FAVORABLE
   THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT COUPLED WITH STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR MAY
   PROVIDE SUFFICIENT SUPPORT FOR A SEVERE THREAT TO PERSIST INTO THE
   AFTERNOON.
   
   ...NRN/CENTRAL IL REGION...
   CURRENT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS SHOWN SIGNS OF WEAKENING AS IT
   MOVES SSEWD OVER NWRN/WEST CENTRAL IL.  THE STORMS ARE ALONG THE ERN
   EDGE OF THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE GRADIENT...AND SHOULD CONTINUE WITH A
   PRONOUNCED NLY COMPONENT OF MOTION ALONG THE ERN SIDE OF THE UPPER
   RIDGE.  THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT THIS CONVECTION MAY INTENSIFY
   SOMEWHAT THIS AFTERNOON AS DIABATIC HEATING/DESTABILIZATION OCCURS
   IN ADVANCE.  IN ADDITION...NEW STORMS MAY DEVELOP LATER THIS
   AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE OF THE MORNING CONVECTION AS AN UPSTREAM COLD
   FRONT MOVES SEWD IN ASSOCIATION WITH A STRONG UPPER SHORT WAVE
   TROUGH DIGGING SEWD ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES.  STRONGER CELLS WILL BE
   CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SEVERE WINDS AND POSSIBLE HAIL.
   
   ...LOWER GREAT LAKES...
   AS THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT ADVANCES SEWD ACROSS THE LOWER
   LAKES...STORMS ARE FORECAST TO FORM ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN
   RESPONSE TO LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND LARGE SCALE ASCENT AHEAD OF
   THE UPPER TROUGH.  ALTHOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN MARGINAL
   WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 50S...THE DYNAMIC FORCING IS EXPECTED TO
   COMPENSATE FOR LIMITED INSTABILITY WITH A THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS
   DEVELOPING LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
   
   ...SRN APPALACHIANS PIEDMONT/CAROLINAS...
   A PROGRESSIVE WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS MOVING ESEWD TOWARD THE
   CNTRL APPALACHIANS PER LATEST WV IMAGERY. BACKGROUND ASCENT WITH
   THIS IMPULSE IS COINCIDING WITH DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION ACROSS THE
   CAROLINAS...WITH A FEW STORMS NOW DEVELOPING.  A WEAK FRONTAL ZONE
   NEAR THE NC/SC BORDER...IN ADDITION TO TERRAIN AND SEA BREEZE
   INFLUENCES...WILL ALSO PROMOTE SCATTERED TSTM DEVELOPMENT AMIDST
   SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR SOME STORM ORGANIZATION AND PERSISTENCE. STORM
   MERGERS AND INTERACTIONS WILL FURTHER INCREASE CHANCES FOR SEVERE
   HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND EVENTS.
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

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