Categorical Graphic
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.

   SPC AC 271929
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0229 PM CDT WED JUN 27 2012
   
   VALID 272000Z - 281200Z
   
   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
   
   HAVE MADE MINOR CHANGES TO UPPER MS VALLEY SEVERE RISK...NAMELY TO
   LOWER SEVERE PROBS ALONG THE U.S./CANADIAN BORDER.  LATEST OA FIELDS
   SUGGEST VERY WARM EML REMAINS ACROSS THIS REGION WITH 700MB
   TEMPERATURES ON THE ORDER OF 16-18C.  SFC HEATING ALONE WILL NOT
   ALLOW BOUNDARY LAYER PARCELS TO REACH THEIR LFC AND ANY ACTIVITY
   THAT DEVELOPS ACROSS THIS REGION WILL BE ELEVATED AND LESS ROBUST
   THAN A LOWER ROOTED UPDRAFT.  WILL MAINTAIN 5% SEVERE PROBS TO
   ACCOUNT FOR A FEW STRONG ELEVATED STORMS BUT OVERALL TRENDS DO NOT
   LOOK FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE.
   
   HAVE REMOVED 5% SEVERE PROBS ACROSS SOUTH FL WHERE CONVECTION HAS
   STRUGGLED TO ATTAIN LEVELS NECESSARY FOR LIGHTNING DISCHARGE.  IN
   ALL LIKELIHOOD ANY STORMS THAT FORM WILL REMAIN QUITE SPARSE AND
   SUB-SEVERE.
   
   OTHERWISE...GREATEST CONCENTRATION OF CONVECTION IS NOW OCCURRING
   ACROSS THE 4-CORNERS REGION INTO THE NRN FRONT RANGE OF CO.  ROBUST
   UPDRAFTS SHOULD GRADUALLY INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE ACROSS THE
   HIGHER TERRAIN AND THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD MOVE NEWD TOWARD THE HIGH
   PLAINS OF NERN CO WHERE UPSLOPE FLOW MAY ENHANCE THE PROSPECT FOR
   SUSTAINED STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS NEAR SEVERE
   LEVELS.  REF MCD1295 FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
   
   ..DARROW.. 06/27/2012
   
   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1125 AM CDT WED JUN 27 2012/
   
   ...NRN/CNTRL MN...
   WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN INTENSE UPPER LOW OVER SRN SASKATCHEWAN
   THAT IS FORECAST TO MOVE MAINLY EWD ACROSS THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE
   PROVINCES THROUGH TONIGHT.  AS THE SYSTEM MOVES EWD...WEAK MID LEVEL
   HEIGHT FALLS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS EXTREME NRN MN WITH THE BULK OF THE
   DYNAMIC FORCING FOR LARGE SCALE ASCENT REMAINING NORTH OF THE
   US/CANADA BORDER.  12Z REGIONAL RAOBS INDICATED AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF
   VERY WARM 700 MB TEMPERATURES OF 16-18C ASSOCIATED WITH AN
   EML/CAPPING INVERSION THAT HAS SPREAD OVER THE UPPER MS VALLEY AND
   TOWARD THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.  THIS WILL LIKELY INHIBIT
   SURFACE-BASED CONVECTION ALONG A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE UPPER MS
   VALLEY DESPITE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE MN
   AREA.  
   
   MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN THE LIKELIHOOD
   OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE FRONT OVER NRN/CNTRL MN LATER
   THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT THE PRESENCE OF STEEP LAPSE
   RATES/MODERATE INSTABILITY AND FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR SUPPORTS A
   CONDITIONAL RISK OF SEVERE STORMS FOR ANY SUSTAINED UPDRAFTS THAT
   DEVELOP.  RELATIVE PROXIMITY OF THE CANADIAN UPPER LOW SUGGESTS THE
   PROBABILITY OF DEEP CONVECTION MAY BE HIGHER CLOSER TO THE NRN MN
   BORDER...AND HAVE MAINTAINED CURRENT SLIGHT RISK AREA IN THIS REGION
   WITH LOWER /5%/ HAIL AND WIND PROBABILITY VALUES SWD INTO CENTRAL
   MN.
   
   ...CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO HIGH PLAINS  
   A RELATIVELY NARROW PLUME OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE IS EVIDENT IN WATER
   VAPOR IMAGERY AND SOUNDER/GPS PW DATA FROM SERN AZ INTO THE CENTRAL
   ROCKIES WHERE SCATTERED HIGH-BASED CONVECTION IS OCCURRING THIS
   MORNING.  ADDITIONAL CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE
   HIGHER TERRAIN OF CENTRAL CO THIS AFTERNOON.  THIS ACTIVITY IS
   EXPECTED TO SPREAD EWD INTO PARTS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS LATE
   THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ALONG/NORTH OF A COLD FRONT MOVING SWD
   OVER THE AREA.  SWLY MID LEVEL WINDS OF 25-30 KT WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
   SUFFICIENT VERTICAL SHEAR FOR A FEW MULTICELL CLUSTERS TO FORM. 
   SOME STORMS MAY BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG WIND GUSTS GIVEN THE
   PRESENCE OF A DEEP WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER.  
   
   ...SRN FL...
   IN THE WAKE OF TD DEBBY NOW OFF THE NERN FL COAST...WSWLY DEEP LAYER
   WINDS ARE EVIDENT IN RAOB AND LOCAL VAD PROFILES OVER SRN FL.  12Z
   MFL RAOB EXHIBITED POTENTIAL INSTABILITY AND CONTINUED HEATING SOUTH
   OF A BAND OF CONVECTION ALONG A FMY-PBI LINE MAY PROMOTE DEVELOPMENT
   OF A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON.  INCREASING MID/UPPER LEVEL
   DRYING AS SEEN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND MODERATELY STRONG
   UNIDIRECTIONAL WSWLY FLOW ALOFT SUGGEST RISK OF ISOLATED STRONG WIND
   GUSTS WITH MORE INTENSE CONVECTIVE CELLS INTO THE EVENING.
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z