Jul 14, 2012 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook | |
Updated: Sat Jul 14 12:59:32 UTC 2012 | |
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table |
Categorical Graphic |
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Probabilistic Tornado Graphic |
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point. |
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic |
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point. |
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic |
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point. |
SPC AC 141256 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0756 AM CDT SAT JUL 14 2012 VALID 141300Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE NRN GRT BASIN AND NRN RCKYS... ...SYNOPSIS... A TROUGH-RIDGE-TROUGH-RIDGE PATTERN WILL PREVAIL FROM W-TO-E ACROSS THE LWR 48 THIS PERIOD...WELL S OF THE MAIN BELT OF THE WLYS THAT WILL REMAIN OVER CNTRL CANADA. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT PART OF THE ABOVE PATTERN AS FAR AS SVR TSTM POTENTIAL IS CONCERNED IS THE UPR LOW NOW OVER NW ORE. THE LOW SHOULD EDGE E/SE INTO CNTRL ORE TODAY...BEFORE TURNING NE TOWARD WRN ID EARLY SUN AS UPSTREAM DISTURBANCE NOW APPROACHING THE BC CST CONTINUES SE TO VANCOUVER ISLAND. OTHERWISE...OVERALL PATTERN WILL REMAIN LARGELY STATIC...WITH ONLY SLOW EWD MOVEMENT EXPECTED WITH TROUGH NOW OVER THE UPR MS VLY. ...NRN RCKYS/NRN GRT BASIN THIS AFTN/EVE... AS ORE UPR TROUGH MOVES SLOWLY ESEWD...ASSOCIATED SFC FRONT SHOULD NEAR THE ID BORDER BY LATE THIS AFTN WHILE LEE LOW SOMEWHAT DEEPENS OVER THE NV/ORE/ID BORDER AREA. GIVEN EXPECTED STRONG SFC HEATING OVER WRN PARTS OF THE NRN GRT BASIN AND PARTS OF THE NRN RCKYS...SCTD TSTMS SHOULD FORM AROUND 21Z...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AHEAD OF FRONT. DEEP SHEAR ACROSS THE REGION SHOULD BE MAINLY SWLY AT 25-30 KTS...AMPLE FOR SUSTAINED STORMS AND POSSIBLY A FEW WEAKLY ROTATING STORMS/SUPERCELLS. LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE GREATEST SVR THREAT...WITH A SECONDARY RISK FOR LOCALLY DMGG WIND...INTO THIS EVE. ...SW U.S. THIS AFTN/EVE... SRN EXTENSION OF WRN STATES LONG WAVE TROUGH SHOULD REMAIN NEARLY STNRY FROM THE LWR CO VLY NNE INTO THE GRT BASIN...MAINTAINING AXIS OF RELATIVELY RICH MOISTURE /PW OF 1.00-1.75 INCHES/ OVER THE REGION. CLOUDS AND LATENT HEATING HAVE WEAKENED LAPSE RATES WITHIN THE MOIST PLUME. BUT SCTD STRONG TSTMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THIS AFTN AND EVE...SUPPORTING A RISK FOR ISOLD DMGG WIND GUSTS WHERE SFC HEATING IS MAXIMIZED BENEATH 20+ KT UNIDIRECTIONAL SSWLY MID LVL FLOW. ...GRT LKS THIS AFTN... UPR MS VLY SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL ADVANCE SLOWLY E ACROSS THE UPR GRT LKS TODAY AS PLAINS RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE UPR MS VLY. DIURNAL STORMS THAT FORMED WITHIN THE SYSTEM/S ASSOCIATED THERMAL TROUGH OVER THE PAST TWO DAYS LIKELY WILL REAPPEAR THIS AFTN AS HEATING OCCURS IN WEAKLY CAPPED...MODERATELY MOIST...WEAKLY CONFLUENT ENVIRONMENT. MODEST SW TO WSWLY DEEP SHEAR MAY FOSTER A FEW STRONG MULTICELL CLUSTERS THAT COULD YIELD GUSTY SFC WINDS AND POSSIBLY MARGINALLY SVR HAIL. ...SRN PLNS THIS AFTN/EVE... A FEW STRONG STORMS COULD FORM LATE THIS AFTN IN ZONE OF MODERATE...DEEP NNELY FLOW ON WRN FRINGE OF MS VLY TROUGH...WHERE STEEP LOW TO MID LVL LAPSE RATES WILL EXIST. THE PRIMARY RISK FROM ANY PULSE CLUSTERS THAT DO FORM SHOULD BE HAIL...ALTHOUGH A DMGG GUST OR TWO COULD NOT BE RULED OUT. ..CORFIDI/ROGERS.. 07/14/2012 CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z