Jul 14, 2012 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Sat Jul 14 12:59:32 UTC 2012
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20120714 1300 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20120714 1300 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20120714 1300 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20120714 1300 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
   SPC AC 141256
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0756 AM CDT SAT JUL 14 2012
   
   VALID 141300Z - 151200Z
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE NRN GRT BASIN
   AND NRN RCKYS...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A TROUGH-RIDGE-TROUGH-RIDGE PATTERN WILL PREVAIL FROM W-TO-E ACROSS
   THE LWR 48 THIS PERIOD...WELL S OF THE MAIN BELT OF THE WLYS THAT
   WILL REMAIN OVER CNTRL CANADA.  THE MOST SIGNIFICANT PART OF THE
   ABOVE PATTERN AS FAR AS SVR TSTM POTENTIAL IS CONCERNED IS THE UPR
   LOW NOW OVER NW ORE.  THE LOW SHOULD EDGE E/SE INTO CNTRL ORE
   TODAY...BEFORE TURNING NE TOWARD WRN ID EARLY SUN AS UPSTREAM
   DISTURBANCE NOW APPROACHING THE BC CST CONTINUES SE TO VANCOUVER
   ISLAND.  OTHERWISE...OVERALL PATTERN WILL REMAIN LARGELY
   STATIC...WITH ONLY SLOW EWD MOVEMENT EXPECTED WITH TROUGH NOW OVER
   THE UPR MS VLY.
   
   ...NRN RCKYS/NRN GRT BASIN THIS AFTN/EVE...
   AS ORE UPR TROUGH MOVES SLOWLY ESEWD...ASSOCIATED SFC FRONT SHOULD
   NEAR THE ID BORDER BY LATE THIS AFTN WHILE LEE LOW SOMEWHAT DEEPENS
   OVER THE NV/ORE/ID BORDER AREA.  GIVEN EXPECTED STRONG SFC HEATING
   OVER WRN PARTS OF THE NRN GRT BASIN AND PARTS OF THE NRN
   RCKYS...SCTD TSTMS SHOULD FORM AROUND 21Z...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
   HIGHER TERRAIN AHEAD OF FRONT.  DEEP SHEAR ACROSS THE REGION SHOULD
   BE MAINLY SWLY AT 25-30 KTS...AMPLE FOR SUSTAINED STORMS AND
   POSSIBLY A FEW WEAKLY ROTATING STORMS/SUPERCELLS.  LARGE HAIL WILL
   BE THE GREATEST SVR THREAT...WITH A SECONDARY RISK FOR LOCALLY DMGG
   WIND...INTO THIS EVE.
   
   ...SW U.S. THIS AFTN/EVE...
   SRN EXTENSION OF WRN STATES LONG WAVE TROUGH SHOULD REMAIN NEARLY
   STNRY FROM THE LWR CO VLY NNE INTO THE GRT BASIN...MAINTAINING AXIS
   OF RELATIVELY RICH MOISTURE /PW OF 1.00-1.75 INCHES/ OVER THE
   REGION. CLOUDS AND LATENT HEATING HAVE WEAKENED LAPSE RATES WITHIN
   THE MOIST PLUME. BUT SCTD STRONG TSTMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THIS
   AFTN AND EVE...SUPPORTING A RISK FOR ISOLD DMGG WIND GUSTS WHERE SFC
   HEATING IS MAXIMIZED BENEATH 20+ KT UNIDIRECTIONAL SSWLY MID LVL
   FLOW.
   
   ...GRT LKS THIS AFTN...
   UPR MS VLY SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL ADVANCE SLOWLY E ACROSS THE UPR
   GRT LKS TODAY AS PLAINS RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE UPR MS VLY.
   DIURNAL STORMS THAT FORMED WITHIN THE SYSTEM/S ASSOCIATED THERMAL
   TROUGH OVER THE PAST TWO DAYS LIKELY WILL REAPPEAR THIS AFTN AS
   HEATING OCCURS IN WEAKLY CAPPED...MODERATELY MOIST...WEAKLY
   CONFLUENT ENVIRONMENT. MODEST SW TO WSWLY DEEP SHEAR MAY FOSTER A
   FEW STRONG MULTICELL CLUSTERS THAT COULD YIELD GUSTY SFC WINDS AND
   POSSIBLY MARGINALLY SVR HAIL.
   
   ...SRN PLNS THIS AFTN/EVE...
   A FEW STRONG STORMS COULD FORM LATE THIS AFTN IN ZONE OF
   MODERATE...DEEP NNELY FLOW ON WRN FRINGE OF MS VLY TROUGH...WHERE
   STEEP LOW TO MID LVL LAPSE RATES WILL EXIST.  THE PRIMARY RISK FROM
   ANY PULSE CLUSTERS THAT DO FORM SHOULD BE HAIL...ALTHOUGH A DMGG
   GUST OR TWO COULD NOT BE RULED OUT.
   
   ..CORFIDI/ROGERS.. 07/14/2012
   
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