Jul 22, 2012 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Sun Jul 22 16:32:28 UTC 2012
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20120722 1630 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20120722 1630 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20120722 1630 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20120722 1630 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
   SPC AC 221628
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1128 AM CDT SUN JUL 22 2012
   
   VALID 221630Z - 231200Z
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM NORTHERN MN INTO PARTS OF
   NORTHERN WI AND UPPER MI...
   
   ...MN/WI/UPPER MI...
   MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A WEAK LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH
   MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN MN...WHILE A SECOND AND STRONGER IMPULSE
   APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS SECOND FEATURE WILL BEGIN
   AFFECTING NORTHERN MN BY LATE AFTERNOON.  WEAK SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL
   WINDS WILL TRANSPORT NEAR 70F DEWPOINTS NORTHWARD TO NEAR THE
   INTERNATIONAL BORDER...YIELDING MLCAPE VALUES OF OVER 2000 J/KG. 
   PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT AT LEAST ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
   DEVELOP ALONG THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT OVER NORTHERN MN BEFORE
   EARLY EVENING.  EFFECTIVE SHEAR ACROSS THIS REGION WILL BE
   SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL. 
   STORMS WILL STRUGGLE TO DEVELOP VERY FAR SOUTHWARD INTO
   CENTRAL/SOUTHERN MN DUE TO CAPPING AND WEAK FORCING.  HOWEVER...THEY
   MAY PERSIST WELL INTO THE EVENING AND SPREAD ACROSS PARTS OF LAKE
   SUPERIOR AND NORTHERN UPPER MI.
   
   ...SOUTHEAST STATES...
   VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TODAY OVER MUCH
   OF THE SOUTHEAST STATES FROM NC INTO THE FL PANHANDLE.  SURFACE
   DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 70S...AND HOT AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES/STEEP LOW
   LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD MUCAPE VALUES OVER 3000
   J/KG.  THE GREATEST COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED ALONG A
   DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARY OVER NC...AND AHEAD OF THE TROPICAL
   WAVE OVER CENTRAL FL.  ANY STORM THAT FORMS ACROSS THIS REGION TODAY
   WILL POSE A RISK OF BRIEF BUT LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS.
   
   ...TX...
   ANOTHER ROUND OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS IS
   EXPECTED TODAY OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL TX.  A WEAK UPPER LOW IS
   APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR LOOPS ACROSS THE REGION...ALONG WITH MORE
   CLOUD DEBRIS THAT THE LAST FEW DAYS.  THE ENHANCED CLOUDS MAY
   DECREASE DAYTIME HIGHS BY A FEW DEGREES AND SOMEWHAT MITIGATE THE
   MICROBURST POTENTIAL.  NEVERTHELESS...ISOLATED INTENSE STORMS WITH
   LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS ARE POSSIBLE.
   
   ...NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...
   A PLUME OF RATHER DEEP MOISTURE IS EVIDENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
   EXTENDING ACROSS WY INTO SD TODAY.  THIS COMBINED WITH STRONG
   DAYTIME HEATING AND AN AXIS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL AID IN THE
   DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
   EVENING.  MID LEVEL WINDS AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR ARE WEAKER THAN
   YESTERDAY...SUGGESTING STORMS WILL BE LESS ORGANIZED. 
   HOWEVER...STRONGER STORMS IN THIS AREA WILL POSE A RISK OF GUSTY
   WINDS AND HAIL.
   
   ...MT...
   SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE
   MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHWEST MT...AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH
   OVER WA/ORE...AND A SUBTLE VORT MAX LIFTING NORTHWARD ACROSS NV. 
   SUFFICIENT VERTICAL SHEAR AND A RATHER DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER WILL
   PROMOTE A FEW ORGANIZED STORMS CAPABLE OF LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS AND
   HAIL.
   
   ..HART/COHEN.. 07/22/2012
   
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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z