Categorical Graphic
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.

   SPC AC 230100
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0800 PM CDT SUN JUL 22 2012
   
   VALID 230100Z - 231200Z
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER NERN MN INTO EXTREME NWRN
   WI...
   
   ...NERN SD...SERN ND THROUGH NRN MN...
   
   STORMS THAT DEVELOPED ALONG COLD FRONT FROM NRN SD...SERN ND INTO
   NWRN MN PERSIST THIS EVENING. THE MOST ORGANIZED STORMS INCLUDING A
   COUPLE OF SUPERCELLS REMAIN OVER THE ARROWHEAD OF MN. HOWEVER...THE
   GENERAL TREND HAS BEEN FOR STORMS TO DECREASE IN ORGANIZATION AND
   INTENSITY. THE 00Z RAOB DATA FROM ABERDEEN AND MINNEAPOLIS INDICATE
   AN INVERSION AROUND 850 MB WHERE BASE OF EML HAS OVERSPREAD WARM
   SECTOR. LIMITED DEEP LAYER FORCING SUGGESTS BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD
   BECOME INCREASINGLY CAPPED AS DIABATIC WARMING DIMINISHES. THUS A
   CONTINUED OVERALL WEAKENING TREND IS EXPECTED. WILL MAINTAIN A
   SLIGHT RISK FOR A SHORT TERM THREAT THIS EVENING SINCE A FEW STORMS
   MIGHT REMAIN CAPABLE OF LOCALLY STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND
   HAIL THROUGH ABOUT 03Z.
   
   ...HIGH PLAINS OF WRN SD...AND NWRN NEB...
   
   A FEW HIGH BASED STORMS CONTINUE WITHIN THE DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY
   LAYER FROM WRN NEB INTO WRN SD. THESE STORMS POSE A MODEST THREAT
   FOR ISOLATED DOWNBURSTS THROUGH 03Z BUT SHOULD BEGIN A GRADUAL
   DECREASE AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS AND STABILIZES.
   
   
   ...SRN MN THROUGH GREAT LAKES AREA...
   
   A FEW ELEVATED STORMS MAY DEVELOP IN ASSOCIATION WITH WARM ADVECTION
   REGIME ATTENDING STRENGTHENING LLJ. A MODEST THREAT MAY EXIST FOR
   ISOLATED MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL.
   
   ..DIAL.. 07/23/2012
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z