Categorical Graphic
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.

   SPC AC 260602
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0102 AM CDT THU JUL 26 2012
   
   VALID 261200Z - 271200Z
   
   ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM A PORTION OF
   IND...OH...PA...SRN NY INTO SRN NEW ENGLAND...
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM A PORTION OF THE SRN
   PLAINS...GREAT LAKES...OH VALLEY...NERN STATES AND MID ATLANTIC...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   
   SYNOPTIC UPPER TROUGH WILL UNDERGO GRADUAL AMPLIFICATION THURSDAY 
   OVER THE GREAT LAKES...OH VALLEY AND NERN STATES. EMBEDDED WITHIN
   THE LARGE SCALE TROUGH IS A VORT MAX OVER SRN MANITOBA THAT WILL
   DROP SWD THROUGH MN AND WI. ANOTHER IMPULSE OVER THE MID-UPPER MS
   VALLEY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE OH VALLEY AND SRN PORTIONS OF THE
   GREAT LAKES...REACHING THE NERN STATES THURSDAY NIGHT. FARTHER WEST
   THE RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE NRN ROCKY MOUNTAIN REGION WHILE AN
   UPPER TROUGH LINGERS OFF THE PACIFIC NW COAST. 
   
   AT THE SFC A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM A SFC LOW IN LOWER MI
   SWWD THROUGH THE MID MS VALLEY AND CNTRL PLAINS. THIS BOUNDARY WILL
   ADVANCE SEWD WHILE WARM FRONT LIFTS NWD INTO SRN NEW ENGLAND.
   
   ...OH VALLEY THROUGH NERN STATES...
   
   CORRIDOR OF MODERATE TO STRONG WSWLY DEEP LAYER FLOW WILL PERSIST
   WITHIN BASE OF AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH WITH 40-50 KT BETWEEN 850 AND
   700 MB FROM THE OH VALLEY INTO THE NERN STATES. THE SWLY LLJ WILL
   CONTRIBUTE TO NEWD DESTABILIZATION AS RICHER BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE
   /UPPER 60S DEWPOINTS/ ADVECTS NEWD IN WAKE OF ADVANCING WARM FRONT.
   A FEW STORMS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT OVER A
   PORTION OF NY INTO NEW ENGLAND. OTHER MORE ORGANIZED STORMS WITH A
   THREAT FOR DAMAGING WIND MAY BE IN PROGRESS OVER SWRN NY OR NRN PA.
   THIS ACTIVITY MAY CONTINUE TO POSE A THREAT OF DAMAGING WIND AS
   DIABATIC WARMING COMMENCES AND LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPEN. OTHER
   STORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP WITHIN LOW LEVEL CONFLUENT FLOW REGIME
   AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AS THE CAP WEAKENS. STRONG INSTABILITY WITH
   2000-3000 J/KG MLCAPE...STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND 30-50 KT
   DEEP LAYER FLOW WILL PROMOTE A THREAT OF WIDESPREAD WIND DAMAGE AS
   STORMS EVOLVE INTO LINES AND CLUSTERS. A FEW STORMS MAY ALSO DEVELOP
   SUPERCELL STRUCTURES WITH POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AND PERHAPS A
   TORNADO OR TWO...ESPECIALLY OVER A PART OF THE NERN STATES WHERE
   STRONGER EFFECTIVE SHEAR WILL EXIST NEAR AND JUST S OF THE WARM
   FRONT.  
   
   
   ...OK THROUGH MID MS VALLEY REGION...
   
   OTHER STORMS WILL REDEVELOP AND INTENSIFY ALONG SWRN EXTENSION OF
   FRONT AND PRE-FRONTAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM THE MID MS VALLEY INTO
   NRN PARTS OF THE SRN PLAINS. MOST OF THIS REGION WILL REMAIN SOUTH
   OF THE STRONGER FLOW ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH.
   HOWEVER...THE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT WILL FAVOR A THREAT OF
   ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND DOWNBURSTS WITH MULTICELL CONVECTION AS
   LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPEN ALONG THERMAL AXIS.  
   
   ...UPPER GREAT LAKES AREA...
   
   RESIDUAL MOISTURE IN POST FRONTAL REGIME WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW
   60S ALONG WITH DIABATIC WARMING WILL PROMOTE AN AXIS OF MODEST
   /1000-1500 J/KG/ MLCAPE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. DEEP FORCING FOR
   ASCENT IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL
   PROMOTE THE DEVELOPMENT OF STORMS AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER
   DESTABILIZES. STORMS WILL EXIST WITHIN A UNIDIRECTIONAL WLY FLOW
   REGIME WITH 30-35 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR. A FEW STORMS MAY BECOME
   CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL THROUGH EARLY
   EVENING.
   
   ..DIAL/SMITH.. 07/26/2012
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z