Categorical Graphic
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.

   SPC AC 290120
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK CORR 1
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0820 PM CDT SAT JUL 28 2012
   
   VALID 290100Z - 291200Z
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM SRN NEB THROUGH NRN KS...
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER A PORTION OF ECNTRL NC...
   
   CORRECTED FOR GENERAL THUNDER GRAPHIC
   
   ...NEB AND NRN KS THROUGH IA AND NRN MO...
   
   WARM FRONT EXTENDS FROM SWRN MO NWWD THROUGH ERN NEB WHERE IT
   INTERCEPTS A THERMAL TROUGH THAT EXTENDS ACROSS WRN NEB INTO NWRN
   KS. SFC BASED STORMS HAVE BEEN DEVELOPING WITHIN ZONE OF DEEPER
   MIXING ALONG AND EAST OF THE TROUGH AND SW OF THE WARM FRONT FROM
   CNTRL AND SRN NEB INTO NRN KS. THIS REGION EXISTS SOUTH OF STRONGER
   FLOW ALOFT...BUT VEERING WIND PROFILES ARE RESULTING IN 30-35 KT 0-6
   KM SHEAR OVER NEB AND MARGINAL SUPERCELL STRUCTURES ARE POSSIBLE.
   PRIMARY THREATS WILL BE ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND SOME HAIL.
   ACTIVITY MIGHT EVENTUALLY CONGEAL INTO A SMALL MCS AS IT DEVELOPS
   SEWD THROUGH NERN KS SUPPORTED BY STRENGTHENING LLJ. OVERALL SEVERE
   THREAT IS EXPECTED TO WANE BY LATE EVENING AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER
   STABILIZES AND INSTABILITY BECOMES INCREASINGLY MARGINAL.
   
   OTHERWISE...SMALL HAIL REMAINS POSSIBLE WITH ELEVATED STORMS
   DEVELOPING IN WARM ADVECTION REGIME EAST OF THE WARM FRONT FROM IA
   INTO NRN MO. 
   
   ...ERN NC...
   
   SCATTERED STRONG STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG LEE TROUGH AXIS OVER
   ECNTRL NC WHERE 35 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR EXISTS WITHIN BASE OF UPPER
   TROUGH. THIS ACTIVITY MAY POSE A THREAT FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND
   AND HAIL THROUGH ABOUT 03Z. HOWEVER...THESE STORMS ARE IN PROCESS OF
   MERGING WITH EXPANSIVE NWWD MOVING CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
   PRODUCED BY DISSIPATING CONVECTION OVER COASTAL NC. A BRIEF INCREASE
   IN INTENSITY OR UPSCALE LINEAR GROWTH MAY OCCUR AS STORMS INTERCEPT
   THIS BOUNDARY. HOWEVER...GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND IS EXPECTED AFTER
   STORMS CROSS THE BOUNDARY AND MOVE INTO A MORE STABLE REGIME.
   
   ...MT THROUGH ND...
   
   ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE DEVELOPING IN THREE REGIMES
   INCLUDING ACTIVITY SPREADING OFF THE HIGH TERRAIN INTO THE HIGH
   PLAINS OF MT...OTHER STORMS ARE DEVELOPING ALONG A WEAK TROUGH AXIS
   IN NWRN ND AS WELL AS WITHIN WARM ADVECTION REGIME IN ASSOCIATION
   WITH VORT MAX OVER SERN ND. GREATEST SEVERE POTENTIAL APPEARS TO BE
   WITH THE HIGH BASED ACTIVITY OVER CNTRL AND ERN MT INTO NWRN ND.
   HOWEVER...INSTABILITY IS LIMITED...AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN
   A GRADUAL DECREASE WITH THE ONSET OF NOCTURNAL COOLING. ANY SEVERE
   EVENTS THIS EVENING ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN TOO SPARSE FOR MORE THAN
   5% SEVERE PROBABILITIES.
   
   ...ERN VA THROUGH EXTREME SERN PA AND NJ...
   
   ISOLATED STORMS MAY REMAIN CAPABLE OF STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
   THROUGH AROUND 02Z OR 03Z. HOWEVER...WEAKENING TREND IS EXPECTED TO
   COMMENCE AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZES DUE TO NOCTURNAL COOLING
   AND INFLUENCE OF CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS.
   
   ..DIAL.. 07/29/2012
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z