Categorical Graphic
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.

   SPC AC 071944
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0244 PM CDT TUE AUG 07 2012
   
   VALID 072000Z - 081200Z
   
   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
   
   ...20Z OUTLOOK UPDATE...KS/OK
   SOME MODEL DATA...PARTICULARLY THE 12Z NAM...HAS BEEN SUGGESTIVE
   THAT UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION...SUPPORTIVE OF AN EVOLVING CLUSTER OF
   STORMS...COULD DEVELOP ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHWEST/CENTRAL KANSAS LATE
   THIS AFTERNOON.  THIS WOULD BE ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF ENHANCED
   WARM ADVECTION...DOWNSTREAM OF A SHORT WAVE IMPULSE PROGRESSING
   AROUND THE NORTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE FOUR CORNERS SUBTROPICAL
   HIGH CENTER.  COINCIDING WITH AN AXIS OF STRONGER SURFACE
   HEATING...AND EVOLVING HOT AND DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY CHARACTERIZED
   BY SURFACE TEMPERATURES AROUND 100F+ AND DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER
   50S/NEAR 60F...POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A FEW STRONG DOWNBURSTS AND
   SIGNIFICANT SURFACE COLD POOL FORMATION...WHICH COULD PROPAGATE
   SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHERN OKLAHOMA LATER THIS EVENING. 
   HOWEVER...NORTHERLY DEEP LAYER MEAN FLOW ACROSS THIS REGION REMAINS
   VERY LIGHT...WITH WEAK SHEAR...WHICH MAY LIMIT  POTENTIAL FOR AN
   ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER EVENT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. 
   GIVEN THE SOMEWHAT MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT...COUPLED WITH THE MODEL
   VARIABILITY...UNCERTAINTIES STILL REMAIN TOO HIGH TO ADD SLIGHT RISK
   PROBABILITIES AT THE PRESENT TIME.
   
   ..KERR.. 08/07/2012
   
   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT TUE AUG 07 2012/
   
   ...CENTRAL/NRN PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...
   A SERIES OF WEAK EMBEDDED WAVES ARE CRESTING THE MIDLEVEL RIDGE OVER
   THE ROCKIES...AND BEGINNING TO MOVE EWD/SEWD OVER THE NRN/CENTRAL
   HIGH PLAINS.  A PLUME OF STEEP LAPSE RATES HAS SPREAD EWD OVER THE
   HIGH PLAINS IN ADVANCE OF THESE LOW-AMPLITUDE WAVES. 
   HOWEVER...WIDESPREAD MID CLOUDS...FORMING IN THE MOIST PLUME ABOVE
   THE BASE OF THE EML...ARE LIMITING SURFACE HEATING IN AN EXTENSIVE
   SWATH FROM ERN MT/SW ND ACROSS WRN SD TO CENTRAL NEB/NW KS.  THE
   RATE OF SURFACE HEATING IS BEHIND WHAT IS NECESSARY TO APPROACH
   CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE LOW 90S MT/ND TO THE
   MID-UPPER 90S SD/NEB...EXCEPT PERHAPS FOR THE WRN FRINGE OF THE
   CLOUDS WHERE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE DIMINISHES.  THUS... CONVECTIVE
   INHIBITION WILL BE SLOW TO ERODE FOR SURFACE-BASED PARCELS...AND
   THIS CASTS DOUBT ON ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON GIVEN THE
   ILL-DEFINED SURFACE COLD FRONT DRIFTING SWD INTO NEB...AND A LITTLE
   BETTER-DEFINED LOW ON THE FRONTAL SEGMENT IN WRN ND.
   
   PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT ISOLATED SURFACE-BASED STORMS MAY BE
   ABLE TO FORM LATER THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS FROM THE
   MT/ND BORDER SWD TO WRN NEB...ON THE WRN FRINGE OF THE
   CLOUDS/ELEVATED CONVECTION.  THE STORM ENVIRONMENT WILL BE
   CHARACTERIZED BY EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR NEAR 30 KT AND MLCAPE OF
   1000-1500 J/KG.  LIKEWISE...ISOLATED MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND
   STRONG OUTFLOW GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE...BUT THE OVERALL SEVERE
   THREAT APPEARS TOO LOW TO WARRANT A SLIGHT RISK AREA.  
   
   ...SE STATES THIS AFTERNOON...
   A VERY MOIST/TROPICAL ENVIRONMENT PERSISTS ACROSS THE SE
   STATES...GENERALLY NE OF A LINGERING LOW IN SE AL.  WIDESPREAD
   CLOUDS WILL LIMIT SURFACE HEATING...WHILE POOR LAPSE RATES AND
   NEARLY SATURATED PROFILES SUGGEST THAT MICROBURST POTENTIAL WILL
   AGAIN BE LIMITED TODAY.  FARTHER W ACROSS PARTS OF
   MS/LA/AR...SOMEWHAT LARGER DCAPE AND STRONGER SURFACE HEATING APPEAR
   MORE SUPPORTIVE OF ISOLATED DOWNBURSTS THIS AFTERNOON.
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z