Categorical Graphic
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.

   SPC AC 291630
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1130 AM CDT WED AUG 29 2012
   
   VALID 291630Z - 301200Z
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY...
   
   ...LOWER MS VALLEY...
   HURRICANE ISAAC IS DRIFTING NWWD OVER SRN LA AND LATEST NHC FORECAST
   INDICATES THE SYSTEM WILL REACH CENTRAL LA BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
    12Z RAOB AT SIL AND LATEST VAD PROFILES AT KLIX AND KMOB EXHIBIT
   VERY STRONG LOW LEVEL VERTICAL SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH  50-65 KT SELY
   WINDS IN THE LOWEST 1 KM...WITH ENLARGED CLOCKWISE TURNING
   HODOGRAPHS IN THE LOWEST 3 KM.  INCORPORATION OF OBSERVED STORM
   MOTIONS RESULTS IN SRH OF 150-400 M2/S2 SUPPORTIVE OF CONVECTIVE
   UPDRAFT ROTATION.  AREA RADARS CONTINUE TO SHOW SMALL TRANSIENT
   ROTATIONAL COUPLETS EMBEDDED WITHIN SEVERAL CONVECTIVE BANDS OVER
   EXTREME SERN MS AS CELLS MOVE RAPIDLY NWWD.  EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER
   SUGGESTS THAT DIURNAL HEATING WILL BE LIMITED THIS AFTERNOON AMIDST
   A MOIST ADIABATIC THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE WITH GENERALLY WEAK CAPE. 
   HOWEVER...THE FAVORABLE KINEMATIC FIELDS INDICATE A CONTINUED THREAT
   FOR SHALLOW SUPERCELLS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES WITHIN THE MORE
   FAVORABLE NERN QUADRANT OF ISAAC AS IT DRIFTS NWWD THROUGH TONIGHT.
   
   ...NRN PLAINS...
   WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A STRONG UPPER TROUGH/VORTICITY MAX MOVING
   ONSHORE INTO THE PACIFIC NW.  THIS SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE ENEWD
   AND FLATTEN THE NRN PORTION OF THE UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE
   CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS INTO THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES.  A STRONG SURFACE
   COLD FRONT IN ADVANCE OF THE UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO PROGRESS
   EWD ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AND PROVIDE A
   FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.  GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES WILL
   RESULT IN SUBSTANTIAL DIABATIC HEATING THIS AFTERNOON WITH A DEEP
   WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING COLD
   FRONT.  MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES ISOLATED STORMS MAY FROM DURING THE
   LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING NEAR THE FRONT.  ALTHOUGH THE STRONGER
   WINDS ALOFT AND ATTENDANT VERTICAL SHEAR WILL REMAIN WEST/NORTH OF
   THE WARM SECTOR...SUFFICIENT SHEAR /25-30 KT IN THE LOWEST 6 KM/ FOR
   ORGANIZED MAINLY MULTICELL STORMS TO DEVELOP WITH POTENTIAL TO
   PRODUCE GUSTY SURFACE WINDS AND POSSIBLE HAIL.
   
   ...SE GA/SC...
   THE NERN EXTENT OF THE MOISTURE PLUME ASSOCIATED WITH ISAAC AND
   DIURNAL HEATING S OF THE THICKER CLOUDS AND A WEAK SURFACE FRONT IN
   THE CAROLINAS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO AFTERNOON MLCAPE VALUES OF
   1500-2000 J/KG.  DCAPE OF 600-1000 J/KG AND MODERATE BUOYANCY COULD
   RESULT IN SUFFICIENTLY STRONG PRECIPITATION LOADING AND DOWNDRAFTS
   FOR A MARGINAL DAMAGING WIND RISK WITH THE STRONGEST MULTICELL
   CLUSTERS.
   
   ..WEISS/GARNER.. 08/29/2012
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z