Categorical Graphic
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.

   SPC AC 310036
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0736 PM CDT THU AUG 30 2012
   
   VALID 310100Z - 311200Z
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM SERN AR...OVER MUCH OF
   MS...A SMALL PART OF SERN LA AND SWRN THROUGH WCNTRL AL...
   
   ...LOWER MS VALLEY REGION...
   
   AS OF EARLY THIS EVENING THE CENTER OF TD ISSAC WAS LOCATED NEAR THE
   CNTRL LA/AR BORDER AND IS FORECAST BY NHC TO CONTINUE SLOWLY NNWLY
   THIS EVENING BEFORE TURNING MORE NLY LATER TONIGHT. ATTENDANT
   CONVECTIVE RAIN BANDS REMAIN MOST ACTIVE IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE
   FROM SERN LA...SRN MS AND SRN AL WHERE INFLUX OF GULF MOISTURE IS
   MAXIMIZED. PRIMARY LIMITING FACTOR HAS BEEN AND WILL CONTINUE TO BE
   THE MARGINAL THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT. DUE TO WIDESPREAD OVERCAST
   OF MULTILAYER CLOUDS ACCOMPANYING THE SYSTEM...VERY LITTLE DIABATIC
   WARMING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER OCCURRED DURING THE DAY. THE LACK OF
   INSOLATION AND THE WARM CORE NATURE OF THE TD HAS RESULTED IN VERY
   MARGINAL INSTABILITY WHERE LOW LEVEL SHEAR IS GREATEST. THE 00Z RAOB
   FROM JACKSON SHOWS VERY LITTLE CAPE (MUCAPE AOB 200 J/KG) BETWEEN
   THE SFC AND 500 MB...AND THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH SPARSE LIGHTNING
   COVERAGE WITH ONGOING CONVECTION. NEVERTHELESS...A FAVORABLE
   KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT WITH LARGE HODOGRAPHS WILL PERSIST EAST OF THE
   CENTER WHICH IN ADDITION TO THE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WARRANTS
   MAINTAINING A 5% TORNADO THREAT AREA FOR THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT.
   
   ..DIAL.. 08/31/2012
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z