Categorical Graphic
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.

   SPC AC 011629
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1129 AM CDT SAT SEP 01 2012
   
   VALID 011630Z - 021200Z
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PARTS OF THE LWR MS AND
   LWR TN VLYS INTO THE LWR OH VLY...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   REMNANT CIRCULATION OF EX-HRCN ISAAC WILL BECOME ABSORBED WITHIN THE
   WLYS LATER THIS PERIOD AS BC UPR LOW PIVOTS ENE INTO WRN
   MB...ENHANCING WSW FLOW FROM THE NRN GRT BASIN TO THE NRN PLNS/UPR
   MS VLY. OTHERWISE...WEAKER DISTURBANCES WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS
   ENE ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...AND ESE FROM THE UPR GRT LKS TO
   THE NEW ENGLAND/MID ATLANTIC CST. 
   
   ...AR TO LWR OH VLY THIS AFTN/EVE...
   AREA VWP DATA SHOW A BELT OF SEASONABLY STRONG /APPROXIMATELY 40 KT/
   LWR TROPOSPHERIC FLOW SKIRTING SRN AND ERN SIDE OF REMNANT
   CIRCULATION OF ISAAC. ATTM THE CIRCULATION IS CENTERED JUST SW OF
   COLUMBIA MISSOURI. THE CENTER SHOULD CONTINUE SLOWLY E TO NEAR ST
   LOUIS THIS EVE...AND REACH S CNTRL IL EARLY SUN.  
   
   CURRENT SATELLITE DATA SUGGEST THAT MID LVL DRY SLOT NOW IN SE
   MO/NRN AR SHOULD MOVE ENE INTO SRN IL LATER TODAY. INITIAL
   IMPRESSION IS THAT THIS SHOULD SERVE TO ENHANCE THE POTENTIAL FOR
   SFC HEATING/DESTABILIZATION IN CORRIDOR OF BKN LOW-LVL CLOUDS THAT
   ATTM EXTENDS FROM NR AR NEWD INTO SRN/CNTRL IL...ROUGHLY COINCIDENT
   WITH AFOREMENTIONED BELT OF STRONG LWR TROPOSPHERIC FLOW.
   
   AMPLE LOW TO MID LVL SPEED AND DIRECTIONAL SHEAR SHOULD REMAIN
   PRESENT TO SUPPORT LOW-LVL UPDRAFT ROTATION/MESOS THROUGH THIS EVE
   FROM CNTRL/ERN AR E/NEWD INTO THE LWR OH/TN VLY. IN ADDITION...BOTH
   SATELLITE AND MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE REGION WILL EXPERIENCE LARGE
   SCALE UVV THAT...WITH SFC HEATING...COULD FOSTER STORM DEVELOPMENT.
   ON THE OTHER HAND...MID-LVL TEMPS WILL BE QUITE WARM /AROUND MINUS
   3-4 C AT 500 MB/...AND HIGH-LVL FLOW WEAK. IT ALSO APPEARS THAT THE
   STRONGEST FORCING FOR ASCENT MAY NOT REACH THE LOW LVL MOIST AXIS
   UNTIL EARLY EVE. THESE FACTORS COULD HINDER...OR AT LEAST
   DELAY...ROBUST STORM DEVELOPMENT.
   
   AT ANY RATE...GIVEN DEGREE OF LOW-LVL HODOGRAPH CURVATURE AND THE
   PRESENCE OF RICH LOW-LVL MOISTURE /DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 70S
   F/...SITUATION LOOKS A LEAST AS FAVORABLE AS YESTERDAY'S AS FAR AS
   TORNADIC POTENTIAL IS CONCERNED..ESPECIALLY OVER THE NRN HALF OF THE
   SLGT RISK. THE POTENTIAL ALSO WILL EXIST FOR A FEW LOCALLY DMGG WIND
   GUSTS...MAINLY IN SRN HALF OF THE RISK AREA. IF THE ARRIVAL OF
   STRONGER LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT IS INDEED DELAYED TIL EARLY
   EVE...THE SVR THREAT...INCLUDING BOTH WIND GUSTS AND
   TORNADOES...COULD PERSIST INTO EARLY TNGT EWD INTO WRN PARTS OF
   KY/TN AND PERHAPS FAR NRN MS.
   
   ...NRN GRT BASIN NE TO NRN PLNS THIS AFTN INTO TNGT...
   LOW AMPLITUDE DISTURBANCES ACCELERATING NEWD AHEAD OF BC/AB UPR
   TROUGH EXPECTED TO FOSTER SCTD SMALL CLUSTERS OF STRONG TO POSSIBLY
   LOCALLY SVR STORMS LATER THIS AFTN INTO TNGT FROM UT/ERN ID E/NE
   INTO MUCH OF WY AND CNTRL/ERN MT. THE MAIN THREAT WITH THIS ACTIVITY
   SHOULD BE DMGG WIND GIVEN 30 KT LWR TROPOSPHERIC MEAN FLOW AND STEEP
   LOW LVL LAPSE RATES.
   
   SOME POTENTIAL ALSO WILL EXIST FOR A LOOSELY-ORGANIZED CLUSTER OF
   FORWARD-PROPAGATING STORMS TO EVOLVE NEAR LEE TROUGH OVER ERN MT
   AND/OR NE WY TOWARD EVE. SUCH A SYSTEM...WERE IT TO DEVELOP...COULD
   MOVE NE INTO WRN AND NRN ND POSING A RISK FOR DMGG WIND GIVEN VERY
   WARM/DEEP MIXED ENVIRONMENT...NOCTURNALLY/DYNAMICALLY STRENGTHENING
   LLJ...AND AT LEAST THE GLANCING INFLUENCE OF FORCING FOR ASCENT
   ASSOCIATED WITH BC/AB/MB UPR TROUGH. LOW SVR PROBABILITIES HAVE BEEN
   EXTENDED INTO ND FOR THIS POSSIBLE SCENARIO.  
   
   ...MID ATLANTIC THIS AFTN...
   WDLY SCTD PULSE STORMS MAY FORM ALONG AND AHEAD OF BACK-DOOR FRONT
   EDGING S ACROSS ERN PA/NJ.  MODEST...DEEP UNIDIRECTIONAL NW FLOW AND
   RELATIVELY STEEP LOW LVL LAPSE RATES MAY FOSTER ISOLD LOCALLY DMGG
   GUSTS BEFORE SUNSET ACROSS PARTS OF WV/MD/DE/VA.
   
   ..CORFIDI/DEAN.. 09/01/2012
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z