Sep 2, 2012 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Sun Sep 2 00:54:30 UTC 2012
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20120902 0100 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20120902 0100 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20120902 0100 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20120902 0100 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
   SPC AC 020051
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0751 PM CDT SAT SEP 01 2012
   
   VALID 020100Z - 021200Z
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID MS
   VALLEY...
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE
   INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...
   
   ...MID MS VALLEY...
   A NEARLY UNBROKEN LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS IS CURRENTLY ONGOING
   ALONG THE ERN EDGE OF A CLOSED-OFF LOW EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR
   IMAGERY CENTERED OVER ERN MO. THE LINE IS BEING SUPPORTED BY A BAND
   OF STRONG LARGE-SCALE ASCENT TO THE EAST OF THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW. THE
   LINE IS ALSO LOCATED ALONG AN AXIS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY WHERE
   SBCAPE IS ESTIMATED AROUND 1000 J/KG IN WRN KY TO ABOVE 2000 J/KG IN
   SERN AR. THE INSTABILITY AND STRONG LARGE-SCALE ASCENT SHOULD ENABLE
   THE LINE TO BE MAINTAINED THROUGH MUCH OF THE EVENING MOVING EWD
   ACROSS NRN MS...WRN TN AND WRN KY.
   
   IN ADDITION...MESOANALYSIS SHOWS A WELL-DEFINED 40 TO 50 KT LOW TO
   MID-LEVEL JET WRAPPING AROUND THE SRN EDGE OF THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW.
   THE EXIT REGION OF THE JET CURRENTLY INTERSECTS THE LINE OF STORMS
   IN SRN IL. THE COMBINATION OF SHEAR AND INSTABILITY APPEARS TO BE
   MAXIMIZED A BIT FURTHER TO THE EAST ACROSS WRN KY AND WRN TN WHERE A
   THREAT FOR SUPERCELLS EMBEDDED IN THE LINE SHOULD CONTINUE THIS
   EVENING. THE WSR-88D VWP AT PADUCAH SHOWS IMPRESSIVE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR
   WITH 0-1 KM SHEAR OF 40 KT AND GRADUALLY VEERING OF THE WINDS WITH
   HEIGHT FROM THE SFC TO 3 KM. THIS LOW-LEVEL SHEAR ENVIRONMENT SHOULD
   CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A TORNADO THREAT WITH ROTATING STORMS THAT
   PERSIST THIS EVENING. WIND DAMAGE WILL ALSO LIKELY ACCOMPANY
   FAST-MOVING BOWING LINE SEGMENTS. THE TORNADO THREAT MAY NOT BE AS
   GREAT FARTHER TO THE SOUTHWEST ACROSS ERN AND SRN AR WHERE THE SFC
   WINDS ARE VEERED. HOWEVER...MLCAPE VALUES ABOVE 2000 J/KG IN SERN AR
   AND NW MS ALONG WITH STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD BE FAVORABLE
   FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AS THE LINE MOVES EWD ACROSS THE SLIGHT RISK
   AREA THIS EVENING.
   
   ...INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...
   THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE
   NRN ROCKIES WITH A PRONOUNCED DRY INTRUSION LOCATED ACROSS THE
   INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. JUST TO THE UPSTREAM OF THE DRY SLOT...NUMEROUS
   THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING FROM SRN MT SWD INTO NRN UT WHERE
   MESOANALYSIS HAS SEVERAL POCKETS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY. ALTHOUGH
   REGIONAL WSR-88D VWPS SHOW UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND
   PROFILES...SUBSTANTIAL SPEED SHEAR IS PRESENT IN THE LOW TO
   MID-LEVELS WHICH IS HELPING TO CREATE 50 TO 60 KT OF DEEP LAYER
   SHEAR ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. THE STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT
   SHOULD CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT THIS EVENING AS THE
   CELLS MOVE QUICKLY NEWD ACROSS SE ID...NRN UT AND INTO WRN WY. LARGE
   HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH SUPERCELLS BUT A WIND DAMAGE THREAT
   SHOULD ALSO EXIST ESPECIALLY WITH ANY MULTICELL CLUSTERS THAT CAN
   PERSIST OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
   
   ..BROYLES.. 09/02/2012
   
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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z