Categorical Graphic
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.

   SPC AC 111619
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1119 AM CDT TUE SEP 11 2012
   
   VALID 111630Z - 121200Z
   
   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A SHORTWAVE IMPULSE OVER ERN ND/NWRN MN WILL EJECT NE OF THE
   INTERNATIONAL BORDER SHORTLY...WITH AN ACCOMPANYING THREAT FOR
   ISOLATED WEAK STORMS SHIFTING NEWD INTO CANADA BY MID-AFTERNOON.
   THEREAFTER...A PLUME OF MID-LEVEL MOISTURE/MARGINAL ELEVATED
   BUOYANCY TRAILING SWWD FROM THE IMPULSE...AMIDST A NOCTURNALLY
   STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL JET STREAM AND WEAK WAA...MAY SUPPORT AN
   ISOLATED WEAK STORM OR TWO FROM NRN MN TO LAKE SUPERIOR SWWD ACROSS
   THE UPPER/MIDDLE MS VALLEY THROUGH TONIGHT. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE LACK
   OF STRONGER DEEP FORCING FOR ASCENT/INSTABILITY...THE THREAT FOR
   ADDITIONAL STORMS SHOULD BE VERY LOW.
   
   ELSEWHERE...NON-SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR AND SOUTH OF A
   DIFFUSE...STALLED FRONT ACROSS THE CNTRL/SOUTH FL PENINSULA AMIDST
   NEARLY-2-INCH PW VALUES...AS SEA BREEZE CIRCULATIONS BECOME BETTER
   DEFINED -- FAVORED OVER THE WEST COAST. ALSO...SCATTERED STORMS IN
   ASSOCIATION WITH A WEAKLY PROGRESSIVE FLOW REGIME WITH EMBEDDED
   IMPULSES WILL EXIST FROM THE SOUTHWEST/CNTRL GREAT BASIN EWD INTO
   THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS AND CNTRL/SRN ROCKIES. IN BOTH CASES...WEAK
   MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL LIMIT STORM ORGANIZATION/PERSISTENCE/STRENGTH.
   
   ..COHEN/THOMPSON.. 09/11/2012
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z