Categorical Graphic
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.

   SPC AC 131217
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0717 AM CDT THU SEP 13 2012
   
   VALID 131300Z - 141200Z
   
   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A SHORTWAVE TROUGH...EMBEDDED WITHIN A LARGE SCALE TROUGH...WILL
   PROGRESS SEWD ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS AND UPPER MS VALLEY AND INTO THE
   GREAT LAKES REGION. A REMNANT VORTICITY MAXIMUM FROM AN UPPER LOW
   WHICH MOVED ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST EARLIER IN THE WEEK WILL BRIEFLY
   PHASE WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH BEFORE BECOMING INCREASINGLY CUT-OFF
   AS IT MOVES SLOWLY SEWD ACROSS NM.
   
   EARLY MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS A COLD FRONT FROM W TX NEWD
   ACROSS THE MID MS VALLEY AND INTO LOWER MI. THE NRN PORTION OF THIS
   FRONT IS EXPECTED TO INTERACT WITH A LARGELY SUBSIDING AIR MASS WITH
   NO TSTMS EXPECTED NE OF THE MID MS VALLEY. FARTHER S...THE FRONT
   WILL INTERACT WITH A MOIST BUT WEAKLY SHEARED AIR MASS...PROVIDING
   THE IMPETUS FOR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS TSTMS. 
   
   ...SRN PLAINS...
   ANAFRONTAL CHARACTERISTIC OF THE FRONT AS WELL AS ADDITIONAL LARGE
   SCALE LIFT PROVIDED BY THE VORT MAX HAS RESULTED IN A LARGE AREA OF
   RAINFALL FROM THE TX PANHANDLE SEWD INTO N-CNTRL TX. ELEVATED TSTM
   ACTIVITY IS ONGOING ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THE SURFACE FRONTAL
   BOUNDARY. SOME HEATING MAY PROMOTE MODEST DESTABILIZATION AHEAD OF
   THE FRONT...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE EDWARDS PLATEAU AND SE OK...BUT
   WEAK WIND PROFILES WILL KEEP STORMS LARGELY UNORGANIZED. AS
   SUCH...PRIMARY THREAT IS HEAVY RAIN AND SEVERE POTENTIAL SHOULD
   REMAIN BELOW 5 PERCENT.
   
   ..MOSIER.. 09/13/2012
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z