Categorical Graphic
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.

   SPC AC 141926
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0226 PM CDT FRI SEP 14 2012
   
   VALID 142000Z - 151200Z
   
   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
   
   ...NY AND PA...
   A FEW CELLS WERE DEVELOPING ALONG THE COLD FRONT FROM NWRN PA INTO W
   CNTRL NY WHERE WEAK INSTABILITY HAS DEVELOPED. GIVEN THE GRADUAL
   MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT...AND INCREASING WINDS WITH
   HEIGHT...CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN FAVOR FOR CELLULAR CONVECTION.
   THIS STORM MODE WOULD SUGGEST A MINIMAL WIND THREAT...BUT 30 KT FLOW
   AROUND 700 MB SUGGESTS GUSTY WINDS COULD OCCUR. WITH SUCH WEAK
   INSTABILITY...ONLY SMALL HAIL IS EXPECTED. THE GREATEST THREAT FOR A
   SEVERE WIND GUST WILL BE OVER NRN NY LATER TODAY...WHERE THE
   STRONGEST FORCING WITH THE TROUGH WILL OCCUR. STORMS COULD BECOME A
   BIT MORE LINEAR AT THAT TIME.
   
   ..JEWELL.. 09/14/2012
   
   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1118 AM CDT FRI SEP 14 2012/
   
   ...NY INTO NRN NEW ENGLAND...
   A STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH INDICATED IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IS
   CROSSING THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES...AND IS FORECAST TO PROGRESS EWD
   AND BECOME INCREASINGLY NEGATIVELY TILTED AS IT MOVES OVER THE ST
   LAWRENCE VALLEY AND NRN NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT.  ASSOCIATED SURFACE
   COLD FRONT FROM THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY AND LOWER GREAT LAKES WILL
   MOVE EWD REACHING THE NRN AND MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST REGION BY LATE
   TONIGHT.  MINIMAL CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL PROMOTE DIABATIC
   HEATING WITHIN A SEASONABLY MOIST LOW LEVEL ENVIRONMENT /SURFACE DEW
   POINTS GENERALLY UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60/...HOWEVER WEAK
   ENVIRONMENTAL LAPSE RATES SEEN IN 12Z RAOBS ARE EXPECTED TO LIMIT
   INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPE AOB 500 J/KG.  LOW-TOPPED CONVECTION MAY
   DEVELOP ALONG/AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE CAPABLE OF
   GENERATING A FEW STRONG WIND GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER
   PARTS OF UPSTATE NY INTO NWRN VT...BUT WEAK INSTABILITY WILL LIMIT
   OVERALL SEVERE THREAT.
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z