Sep 14, 2012 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook | |
Updated: Fri Sep 14 19:29:30 UTC 2012 | |
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table |
Categorical Graphic |
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Probabilistic Tornado Graphic |
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point. |
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic |
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point. |
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic |
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point. |
SPC AC 141926 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0226 PM CDT FRI SEP 14 2012 VALID 142000Z - 151200Z ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...NY AND PA... A FEW CELLS WERE DEVELOPING ALONG THE COLD FRONT FROM NWRN PA INTO W CNTRL NY WHERE WEAK INSTABILITY HAS DEVELOPED. GIVEN THE GRADUAL MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT...AND INCREASING WINDS WITH HEIGHT...CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN FAVOR FOR CELLULAR CONVECTION. THIS STORM MODE WOULD SUGGEST A MINIMAL WIND THREAT...BUT 30 KT FLOW AROUND 700 MB SUGGESTS GUSTY WINDS COULD OCCUR. WITH SUCH WEAK INSTABILITY...ONLY SMALL HAIL IS EXPECTED. THE GREATEST THREAT FOR A SEVERE WIND GUST WILL BE OVER NRN NY LATER TODAY...WHERE THE STRONGEST FORCING WITH THE TROUGH WILL OCCUR. STORMS COULD BECOME A BIT MORE LINEAR AT THAT TIME. ..JEWELL.. 09/14/2012 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1118 AM CDT FRI SEP 14 2012/ ...NY INTO NRN NEW ENGLAND... A STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH INDICATED IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IS CROSSING THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES...AND IS FORECAST TO PROGRESS EWD AND BECOME INCREASINGLY NEGATIVELY TILTED AS IT MOVES OVER THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY AND NRN NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT. ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT FROM THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY AND LOWER GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE EWD REACHING THE NRN AND MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST REGION BY LATE TONIGHT. MINIMAL CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL PROMOTE DIABATIC HEATING WITHIN A SEASONABLY MOIST LOW LEVEL ENVIRONMENT /SURFACE DEW POINTS GENERALLY UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60/...HOWEVER WEAK ENVIRONMENTAL LAPSE RATES SEEN IN 12Z RAOBS ARE EXPECTED TO LIMIT INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPE AOB 500 J/KG. LOW-TOPPED CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP ALONG/AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE CAPABLE OF GENERATING A FEW STRONG WIND GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER PARTS OF UPSTATE NY INTO NWRN VT...BUT WEAK INSTABILITY WILL LIMIT OVERALL SEVERE THREAT. CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z