Categorical Graphic
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.

   SPC AC 151607
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1107 AM CDT SAT SEP 15 2012
   
   VALID 151630Z - 161200Z
   
   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
   
   ...NEW ENGLAND...
   
   STRONG HEIGHT FALLS WILL SPREAD ACROSS NRN NEW ENGLAND INTO THE SERN
   PROVINCES OF CANADA TODAY AHEAD OF A DISTINCT SHORT-WAVE TROUGH. 
   SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NOTED AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE
   ACROSS ERN ME WITH DEEP CONVECTION PRIMARILY EXPECTED BEFORE 21Z.
   
   ...SRN U.S...
   
   SEVERAL WEAK SHORT-WAVE TROUGHS/DISTURBANCES WILL INFLUENCE
   CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WITHIN OTHERWISE WEAK FLOW REGIME ACROSS THE
   SRN U.S.  THE PRIMARY CORRIDOR OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
   WILL OCCUR WITHIN A VERY MOIST PLUME FROM THE TX COAST INTO THE
   LOWER MS VALLEY WHERE PW VALUES ARE ON THE ORDER OF 1.5-2 INCHES. 
   POOR LAPSE RATES AND WEAK SHEAR WILL LIMIT UPDRAFT INTENSITY ACROSS
   THIS REGION.
   
   OTHER SHOWERS AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WILL PERSIST
   WITHIN DEEP ELY FLOW ACROSS FL BUT MEAGER LAPSE RATES/INSTABILITY
   ALSO SUGGEST UPDRAFTS WILL STRUGGLE TO ATTAIN ROBUST INTENSITY
   ACROSS THIS REGION.
   
   ...NWRN MT...
   
   STRONG HEATING ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES WILL LEAD TO VERY STEEP LAPSE
   RATES FROM ERN WA INTO NWRN MT THIS AFTERNOON.  WHILE MOISTURE IS
   QUITE MEAGER ACROSS THIS REGION THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE THAT ONE
   OR TWO THUNDERSTORMS COULD EVOLVE OVER/NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
   NWRN MT LATE THIS AFTERNOON.  IN ALL LIKELIHOOD THIS ACTIVITY WILL
   PROVE VERY SPARSE AND CONVECTION WILL STRUGGLE TO PRODUCE LIGHTNING.
   
   ..DARROW.. 09/15/2012
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z