The SPC is forecasting ...severe thunderstorms with widespread damaging winds and a few tornadoes expected over parts of the mid atlantic states into portions of southern new york this afternoon into tonight.... Please read the latest public statement about this event. View What is a Watch? clip.
| Categorical Graphic |
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| Probabilistic Tornado Graphic |
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| Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point. |
| Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic |
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| Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point. |
| Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic |
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| Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point. |
SPC AC 190044 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0744 PM CDT TUE SEP 18 2012 VALID 190100Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM SRN NEW ENGLAND SSWWD TO ERN NC... ...SRN NEW ENGLAND SWD TO THE NC COASTAL PLAIN... BAND OF CONVECTION EXTENDING FROM WRN NEW ENGLAND SSWWD INTO GA WILL CONTINUE SHIFTING EWD THIS EVENING...AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT. WHILE INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN MEAGER AT BEST FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION NWD...VERY STRONG/VEERING FLOW WITH HEIGHT WARRANTS CONTINUATION OF WIND/ISOLATED TORNADO PROBABILITY ACROSS THIS REGION. MEANWHILE...GREATER INSTABILITY EXISTS FROM ERN NC SSWWD...BUT VEERING/SHEAR DECREASES WITH SWD EXTENT -- AND THUS WILL EXTEND SLIGHT RISK NO FARTHER S THAN SERN NC. THREAT SHOULD SHIFT OFFSHORE FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION SWD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...BUT MAY LINGER ACROSS SRN NEW ENGLAND WELL INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ..GOSS.. 09/19/2012 CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z