Categorical Graphic
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.

   SPC AC 191926
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK CORR 1
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0226 PM CDT WED SEP 19 2012
   
   VALID 192000Z - 201200Z
   
   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
   
   CORRECTED FOR CATEGORICAL GRAPHIC
   
   ...DISCUSSION...
   
   NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO CURRENT FORECAST.
   
   ..DIAL.. 09/19/2012
   
   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1102 AM CDT WED SEP 19 2012/
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH EMBEDDED WITHIN LARGER-SCALE CYCLONIC UPPER
   FLOW OVER THE ERN CONUS IS ADVANCING SEWD TOWARDS THE UPPER GREAT
   LAKES. AN ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER MS
   RIVER VALLEY AND EVENTUALLY INTO WI/IL BY THIS EVENING...WITH
   THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT LIKELY ACCOMPANYING THE COLD FRONT ACROSS
   PARTS OF WI/IA AND NRN IL. FARTHER E...A COLD FRONT WILL STALL OFF
   THE ATLANTIC COAST AND ARC SWWD ACROSS NRN FL AND INTO THE GULF OF
   MEXICO...AS AN ASSOCIATED UPPER DISTURBANCE QUICKLY MOVES NEWD INTO
   ERN CANADA. STRONG HEATING WITHIN A MOIST AIR MASS SHOULD PROMOTE
   THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER THE FL PENINSULA THIS AFTERNOON...BUT
   ANY SVR THREAT SHOULD BE MITIGATED BY POOR MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES AND
   WEAK LOW-/MIDLEVEL FLOW. 
   
   ...PORTIONS OF CNTRL AND SWRN WI...FAR NERN IA AND NWRN IL...
   WEAK LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION OCCURRING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
   COLD FRONT WILL COMBINE WITH DIURNAL HEATING TO YIELD MODEST
   DESTABILIZATION /E.G. MLCAPE VALUES OF 300-500 J/KG/. AS THIS
   OCCURS...ASCENT AIDED BY AN APPROACHING UPPER JET STREAK AND MODEST
   MIDLEVEL HEIGHT FALLS WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION...SUPPORTING
   SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.
   STEEPENING LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND FAVORABLE KINEMATIC PROFILES
   WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF STRONG TO PERHAPS ISOLATED SVR WIND
   GUSTS...THUS WARRANTING INTRODUCTION OF 5 PERCENT WIND
   PROBABILITIES.
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z