Sep 24, 2012 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Mon Sep 24 19:46:32 UTC 2012
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20120924 2000 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20120924 2000 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20120924 2000 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20120924 2000 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.		 
   SPC AC 241942
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0242 PM CDT MON SEP 24 2012
   
   VALID 242000Z - 251200Z
   
   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
   
   --- UPDATES ---
   ONLY A FEW MINOR/PERIPHERAL ADJUSTMENTS ARE MADE TO GEN TSTM LINES
   BASED ON LATEST SATELLITE TRENDS AND SHORT-TERM NUMERICAL GUIDANCE. 
   MRGL/OVERNIGHT HAIL POTENTIAL STILL APPEARS REASONABLE OVER LOWER
   MO/MID MS VALLEYS WHERE ELEVATED LOW-LEVEL WAA/ISENTROPIC LIFT
   REGIME WILL JUXTAPOSE WITH SRN RIM OF FAVORABLE DEEP SHEAR.
   
   ..EDWARDS.. 09/24/2012
   
   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1118 AM CDT MON SEP 24 2012/
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A LARGE TROUGH ACROSS MUCH OF THE ERN CONUS REMAINS THE PRIMARY
   FEATURE. A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS AND ASSOCIATED WIND SPEED
   MAXIMA WILL PIVOT CYCLONICALLY AROUND THE MEAN TROUGH BUT LITTLE
   SENSIBLE WEATHER BESIDES INCREASED CLOUDINESS IS ANTICIPATED.
   FARTHER W...A CLOSED LOW...CURRENTLY CENTERED NEAR THE ORE/NV/ID
   BORDER INTERSECTION WILL SLOWLY PROGRESS SEWD INTO THE CNTRL GREAT
   BASIN.
   
   AT THE SFC...A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE OH
   VALLEY WILL PROPAGATE SLOWLY EWD WHILE A LEE TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE
   CNTRL PLAINS/SRN HIGH PLAINS. SURFACE ANALYSIS ALSO REVEALS A WEAK
   BOUNDARY EXTENDING EWD FROM A WEAK SFC LOW IN SWRN KS. THE PRESSURE
   GRADIENT BETWEEN THE ERN CONUS HIGH AND LEE TROUGH WILL FAVOR
   ENHANCED SLY WINDS...WHICH WILL ACT TO SHARPEN THE BOUNDARY AND MOVE
   IT NWD/NEWD AS A WARM FRONT. SCANT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE EXISTS ACROSS
   MOST OF THE COUNTRY WITH 60 DEG DEWPOINTS CURRENTLY CONFINED TO THE
   GULF COAST AND CNTRL/S TX. 
   
   ...NRN MO...CNTRL/SRN IL...SRN IND...WRN KY...
   THE WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND ROUGHLY FROM FAR NERN KS SEWD
   ACROSS WRN MO AND INTO N-CNTRL AR AT 06Z TUESDAY. ENHANCED
   ISENTROPIC ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH A STRENGTHENING SWLY LOW-LEVEL JET
   SHOULD PROMOTE AT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION EARLY TUESDAY
   MORNING. STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES RESULTANT FROM A DEEP EML AND
   MODEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR /0-6 KM BULK SHEAR AROUND 40-50 KTS PER NAM
   GUIDANCE/ WILL SUPPORT A LOW SEVERE HAIL PROBABILITY. GIVEN THE
   STABLE/DECOUPLED NATURE OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER...THE SEVERE WIND
   THREAT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 5 PERCENT. 
   
   ...INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...NRN ROCKIES...
   INCREASED MOISTURE...OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS...AND LARGE-SCALE LIFT
   ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL PROMOTE ISOLATED TO
   SCATTERED TSTMS ACROSS THE AREA. SOME GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WITH
   THIS ACTIVITY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS ERN NV...BUT THE MEAGER
   INSTABILITY AND WEAK FLOW ALOFT WILL PROHIBIT STRONG UPDRAFTS AND
   THE PROBABILITY OF SEVERE WINDS IS BELOW 5 PERCENT.
   
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