Oct 5, 2012 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook | |
Updated: Fri Oct 5 04:38:27 UTC 2012 | |
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table |
Categorical Graphic |
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Probabilistic Tornado Graphic |
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point. |
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic |
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point. |
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic |
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point. |
SPC AC 050435 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1135 PM CDT THU OCT 04 2012 VALID 051200Z - 061200Z ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... A LARGE MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE MAINTAINED ACROSS MUCH OF THE CNTRL/ERN CONUS THROUGH THE PERIOD. ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE...AN EXTENSIVE SFC FRONT -- LYING FROM THE GREAT LAKES SWWD INTO THE SRN PLAINS AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD -- WILL PROGRESS EWD/SWD AND STRETCH FROM NEW ENGLAND TO SW TX BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXPAND ACROSS THE CNTRL CONUS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. ...FAR NERN TX...SERN OK...CNTRL/NRN/WRN AR...S-CNTRL/SERN MO... POST-SFC-FRONTAL CONVECTION WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EWD THROUGH THE PERIOD. MODESTLY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ACCOMPANYING A RESIDUAL EML SHOULD BOOST ELEVATED INSTABILITY BEHIND THE SFC FRONT. THIS WILL SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR OCCASIONALLY SUSTAINED...ELEVATED STORMS WITH ISOLATED INSTANCES OF MARGINALLY SVR HAIL AMIDST GENERALLY 25-40 KT OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR. A FEW STORMS MAY ALSO DEVELOP INVOF THE SFC FRONT DURING THE AFTERNOON AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS DEPICT LIMITED PRE-FRONTAL CINH. STRONG TO PERHAPS LOCALLY SVR WIND GUSTS MAY ACCOMPANY THIS ACTIVITY BEFORE IT BECOMES INCREASINGLY UNDERCUT BY THE ADVANCING FRONT. ..COHEN/DIAL.. 10/05/2012 CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z