Categorical Graphic
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.

   SPC AC 211223
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0723 AM CDT SUN OCT 21 2012
   
   VALID 211300Z - 221200Z
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF WEST TX MAINLY
   TONIGHT...
   
   MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS TWO UPPER FEATURES THAT WILL
   AFFECT THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES TODAY.  THE FIRST IS A LOW
   AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER NM...WHICH WILL TRACK
   NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS THIS EVENING.  THE SECOND IS A
   STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT WILL CROSS NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA
   AND AFFECT NM/WEST TX BY THIS EVENING.  BOTH SYSTEMS WILL PROVIDE A
   THREAT OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS.
   
   ...NM/WEST TX...
   STRONG DAYTIME HEATING IS EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHEAST NM AND WEST TX
   TODAY...RESULTING IN STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND DEEP MIXING. 
   THE SURFACE DRYLINE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AROUND THE LONGITUDE OF
   MAF...WITH DRY/WINDY CONDITIONS TO THE WEST.  INCREASING LARGE SCALE
   FORCING COMBINED WITH DEEP MIXING IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN SCATTERED
   HIGH-BASED CONVECTION BY LATE AFTERNOON OVER SOUTHEAST NM AND
   SOUTHWEST TX.  THESE STORMS WILL APPROACH THE DRYLINE AROUND DUSK
   AND MAY INTENSIFY TO SEVERE LEVELS.  COVERAGE OF INTENSE STORMS IS
   LIKELY TO BE SPARSE.  HOWEVER...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
   SUFFICIENT CAPE AND VERTICAL SHEAR FOR A RISK OF ROTATING STORMS
   CAPABLE OF HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.  THE PRIMARY THREAT IS LIKELY TO
   BE 03-09Z IN THIS AREA.
   
   ...MO/IA/IL...
   LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS RAPIDLY INCREASING ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES
   THIS MORNING WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 70S AS FAR NORTH AS CENTRAL OK AT
   12Z.  CONTINUED MOISTENING THROUGH THE DAY WILL DESTABILIZE THE AIR
   MASS OVER PARTS OF MO/IA...ALTHOUGH A CAPPING INVERSION SHOULD
   INHIBIT DEEP CONVECTION.  LATER TONIGHT...THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER
   NM WILL APPROACH AND RESULT IN ENHANCED LOW LEVEL WARM
   ADVECTION/LIFT.  MOST MODEL SOLUTION INDICATE THE LIKELIHOOD OF
   SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS /MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT/.  A FEW
   OF THE STRONGEST STORMS COULD PRODUCE HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS. 
   ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.
   
   ..HART/DEAN.. 10/21/2012
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z