Oct 23, 2012 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Tue Oct 23 12:48:32 UTC 2012
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20121023 1300 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20121023 1300 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20121023 1300 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20121023 1300 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
   SPC AC 231245
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0745 AM CDT TUE OCT 23 2012
   
   VALID 231300Z - 241200Z
   
   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS AN UPPER IMPULSE MOVING ACROSS THE MID-MS
   RIVER VALLEY THIS MORNING...WITH AREAS OF ASSOCIATED CONVECTION
   EVIDENT FROM CNTRL MO EWD INTO PORTIONS OF IND. TSTMS ACROSS THIS
   AREA ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN SUB-SEVERE AS THEY PROGRESS EWD INTO A
   LESS UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT...AND THE UPPER IMPULSE WEAKENS WITH TIME.
   LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AXIS WILL EXTEND N-NEWD INTO THE UPPER MS RIVER
   VALLEY TODAY...WITH A SFC WARM FRONT FORECAST TO MOVE NWD INTO PARTS
   OF CNTRL WI AND MN. SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY IS IN PLACE TO SUPPORT
   TSTM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS PARTS OF NRN IL AND SRN WI THIS
   AFTERNOON...BUT THE PRESENCE OF A CAPPING INVERSION AND WEAK
   MIDLEVEL HEIGHT RISES SHOULD LIMIT TSTM COVERAGE.
   
   A SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH EMBEDDED WITHIN LARGE-SCALE CYCLONIC FLOW
   CENTERED OVER THE WRN CONUS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS...AND
   COULD AID IN ISOLATED TSTM DEVELOPMENT OVER ND/NRN MN...BUT WEAK
   INSTABILITY SHOULD MITIGATE ANY SVR POTENTIAL. FARTHER W...SHOWERS
   AND A FEW TSTMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE CYCLONIC SIDE OF A STRONG JET
   STREAK MOVING ACROSS THE ERN PACIFIC.
   
   ..ROGERS/HART.. 10/23/2012
   
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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z