Oct 23, 2012 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook | |
Updated: Tue Oct 23 12:48:32 UTC 2012 | |
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table |
Categorical Graphic |
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Probabilistic Tornado Graphic |
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point. |
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic |
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point. |
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic |
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point. |
SPC AC 231245 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0745 AM CDT TUE OCT 23 2012 VALID 231300Z - 241200Z ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS AN UPPER IMPULSE MOVING ACROSS THE MID-MS RIVER VALLEY THIS MORNING...WITH AREAS OF ASSOCIATED CONVECTION EVIDENT FROM CNTRL MO EWD INTO PORTIONS OF IND. TSTMS ACROSS THIS AREA ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN SUB-SEVERE AS THEY PROGRESS EWD INTO A LESS UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT...AND THE UPPER IMPULSE WEAKENS WITH TIME. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AXIS WILL EXTEND N-NEWD INTO THE UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY TODAY...WITH A SFC WARM FRONT FORECAST TO MOVE NWD INTO PARTS OF CNTRL WI AND MN. SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY IS IN PLACE TO SUPPORT TSTM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS PARTS OF NRN IL AND SRN WI THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THE PRESENCE OF A CAPPING INVERSION AND WEAK MIDLEVEL HEIGHT RISES SHOULD LIMIT TSTM COVERAGE. A SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH EMBEDDED WITHIN LARGE-SCALE CYCLONIC FLOW CENTERED OVER THE WRN CONUS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS...AND COULD AID IN ISOLATED TSTM DEVELOPMENT OVER ND/NRN MN...BUT WEAK INSTABILITY SHOULD MITIGATE ANY SVR POTENTIAL. FARTHER W...SHOWERS AND A FEW TSTMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE CYCLONIC SIDE OF A STRONG JET STREAK MOVING ACROSS THE ERN PACIFIC. ..ROGERS/HART.. 10/23/2012 CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z